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Wall Street is growing skeptical of the data center boom

72 points · 87 comments · mikhael

  1. bryanlarsen · · focus · HN ↗
    Any data center that can remain profitable selling open source tokens at commodity prices will be fine. Any data center that relies on OpenAI/Anthropic level token prices and margins might be in trouble. After clearing their debts through bankruptcy, they'd likely be quite profitable selling open source tokens at commodity prices.
    1. bix6 · · focus · HN ↗
      Quite profitable at commodity prices? I don’t buy that. And all of them are building with debt / equity that expects high token prices?
      1. bryanlarsen · · focus · HN ↗
        After bankruptcy they likely have no debt, so can out-compete those that didn't go through bankruptcy. It's the bankruptcy that makes them profitable -- it's a common pattern in nascent commodity industries.
        1. nemomarx · · focus · HN ↗
          Bad news for wall Street though if they have to go bankrupt first?

          I mean the physical hardware will be fine but the owners and investors should be worried then right

          1. delusional · · focus · HN ↗
            By the time the bankruptcies come, they'll all be owned by index funds and main street. The price will crash at the break of the bankruptcy, and wall street will swoop in to buy up the "distressed assets" at bargain bin prices.
            1. DivingForGold · · focus · HN ↗
              Yeah, Musk has cash, he will send his operatives over to make a lowball offer on bankruptcy assets ...
          2. georgemcbay · · focus · HN ↗
            > Bad news for wall Street though if they have to go bankrupt first?

            Don't worry, the already stretched taxpayer will be on the hook for everything just like in 2008!

            This time the relief mechanism is already baked into the system (capital does learn from its past mistakes, even if it may not be the lessons you'd hope for!)

            <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;prospect.org&#x2F;2026&#x2F;08&#x2F;03&#x2F;ai-bailout-could-be-baked-into-bubble-private-equity-life-insurers-loans&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;prospect.org&#x2F;2026&#x2F;08&#x2F;03&#x2F;ai-bailout-could-be-baked-in...

        2. jordanb · · focus · HN ↗
          Guess this is the logic for SPCX bond trading at junk valuations?
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