How long would the Iran war have to continue to have cost as much as to fund the NASA mission, or have we already passed that point ?
Also, the war cannot be won without boots on the ground, and that is also not feasible as you need 2-4x the amount of soldiers that the enemy nation has to successfully conquer a nation (as per the US Army / CIA handbook), and Iran has about a million soldiers, so 2-4 million US soldiers would be required for that.
It would literally turn into another Vietnam or Afghanistan. Unfriendly terrain where everything needs to be flown or sailed in, hostile population where the US has been painted as the "big devil" for 50+ years.
Speaking of Afghanistan, Taliban had 58,000 "soldiers", and we sent almost 600,000 soldiers there (peak strength) and still lost the war, and Iran is very similar to Afghanistan.
On the other hand, a US retreat would mean Iran keeps the chokehold on global oil reserves, and are free to develop nukes, with any future missions by the US to limit their nuclear weapon research resulting in a worse situation than before.
So yeah, basically a forever war, one that everybody that knows even the tiniest bit about the Middle East has advised against pretty much forever.
Unless the President decides to eat some humble pie and basically surrender, this one is end up much worse than Vietnam, and the ramifications global.
What worries me the most is that I can’t imagine students and citizens going to protest en masse on the streets against the war. They’re too busy to complain on X and Tiktok to do anything about it.
> Unless the President decides to eat some humble pie and basically surrender
I don't think that option even exists. In my opinion the world order changed this year, the USA w/ it's trillions of dollars of GDP and huge military lost it's grip on the ME.
Even assuming a diffrent president, the situation is much worse than it was 7 months ago.
Iran basically holds global oil supplies in a chokehold, and should the US choose to withdraw unconditionally today, Iran would still collect tariffs on all ships passing the strait, and be free to develop nuclear weapons.
Who's going to stop them ? Any attack would simply further constrain oil supplies, with increased costs as a direct consequence.
Regardless of the outcome, global oil prices have taken a permanent hike up. They'll likely drop quite a bit if/when the war ends, and Iran (or allies) stops bombing Saudi oil pipes, and likely also when the Ukraine/Russia war ends, where Russia can alleviate some of the pressure on asia.
If nothing else, its at least driving adoption of the electrification of the western society, and I'm seeing heat pumps and EVs selling at an increased pace. That obviously doesn't help if your electrical grid is also fossil fuel based, but there are also major renewable energy plants being commissioned.
aarjaneiro · · focus · HN ↗
> Engages in pointless wars
8fingerlouie · · focus · HN ↗
Also, the war cannot be won without boots on the ground, and that is also not feasible as you need 2-4x the amount of soldiers that the enemy nation has to successfully conquer a nation (as per the US Army / CIA handbook), and Iran has about a million soldiers, so 2-4 million US soldiers would be required for that.
It would literally turn into another Vietnam or Afghanistan. Unfriendly terrain where everything needs to be flown or sailed in, hostile population where the US has been painted as the "big devil" for 50+ years.
Speaking of Afghanistan, Taliban had 58,000 "soldiers", and we sent almost 600,000 soldiers there (peak strength) and still lost the war, and Iran is very similar to Afghanistan.
On the other hand, a US retreat would mean Iran keeps the chokehold on global oil reserves, and are free to develop nukes, with any future missions by the US to limit their nuclear weapon research resulting in a worse situation than before.
So yeah, basically a forever war, one that everybody that knows even the tiniest bit about the Middle East has advised against pretty much forever.
sph · · focus · HN ↗
What worries me the most is that I can’t imagine students and citizens going to protest en masse on the streets against the war. They’re too busy to complain on X and Tiktok to do anything about it.
pbkompasz · · focus · HN ↗
I don't think that option even exists. In my opinion the world order changed this year, the USA w/ it's trillions of dollars of GDP and huge military lost it's grip on the ME.
sph · · focus · HN ↗
8fingerlouie · · focus · HN ↗
Iran basically holds global oil supplies in a chokehold, and should the US choose to withdraw unconditionally today, Iran would still collect tariffs on all ships passing the strait, and be free to develop nuclear weapons.
Who's going to stop them ? Any attack would simply further constrain oil supplies, with increased costs as a direct consequence.
Regardless of the outcome, global oil prices have taken a permanent hike up. They'll likely drop quite a bit if/when the war ends, and Iran (or allies) stops bombing Saudi oil pipes, and likely also when the Ukraine/Russia war ends, where Russia can alleviate some of the pressure on asia.
If nothing else, its at least driving adoption of the electrification of the western society, and I'm seeing heat pumps and EVs selling at an increased pace. That obviously doesn't help if your electrical grid is also fossil fuel based, but there are also major renewable energy plants being commissioned.
sapphicsnail · · focus · HN ↗