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Fable 5 – Median thinking declined in August

428 points · 293 comments · espeed

  1. alexjplant · · focus · HN ↗
    I seem to recall Anthropic going on record saying that they don't do anything to model performance to stretch their compute capacity. I've anecdotally noticed massive peaks and troughs in performance week to week (albeit with Opus, not Fable).

    I wonder what their official explanation for this behavior is.

    1. Wowfunhappy · · focus · HN ↗
      When something is new, its capabilities feel incredible. Over time, those same capabilities become mundane, and you start to notice the flaws.

      (Now, if TFA is actually measuring reasoning tokens, that's quite different! It's not entirely obvious to me how he is measuring.)

      1. chrsw · · focus · HN ↗
        I don’t think that’s what’s going on. I notice flaws on day one of model releases. But I also notice improvements if the model is truly more advanced than what I’m used to. Then over time the same questions or tasks return worse results.

        What is actually stopping these model companies from running a model at full capacity on release then once its name rings out, start serving users quantized garbage?

        1. Wowfunhappy · · focus · HN ↗
          > What is actually stopping these model companies from running a model at full capacity on release then once its name rings out, start serving users quantized garbage?

          ...I mean, if they were actually doing this despite saying that they don't—promising one product and delivering something else—I think that would be fraud, no?

          And, maybe it's one thing to secretly defraud normies like us (although class action lawsuits do exist), but I don't think major enterprises or the US military would take too kindly to it.

          1. mobelkh · · focus · HN ↗
            is it? it's still the same model, they can claim the quantization down to q4 still retains 98% of the performance therefore it's fine.

            nothing on the fine print tells you what the weights are, you're just getting Fable 5, whatever that is

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