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Fable 5 – Median thinking declined in August

428 points · 293 comments · espeed

  1. talon8635 · · focus · HN ↗
    Could there be a benefit to releasing a new model, slowly dumbing it down over a couple months, then releasing a new model that’s marginally if at all better than the original to create a perceived improvement when in reality there isn’t really one?

    For an industry that’s stagnant in progress yet relies on new frequent releases to survive (non-progress being an existential risk), this could make sense.

    I have no idea if that’s what’s happened, I completely pulled it out of my butt. And I have no idea is the actual frontier is stagnating.

    1. nxc18 · · focus · HN ↗
      There must be some benefit if all the providers are doing it independently.

      GPT5.6-Sol on Max thinking just became regarded as of a few days ago.

      The boosters will tell me it’s my fault for using such an old, cheap out-of-date low quality near useless wish.com model (that was SOTA and better than human coders one month ago).

      The cycle repeats.

      1. talon8635 · · focus · HN ↗
        Again, I’m out of my element here, but isn’t the entire industry dependent on “new better releases frequently”? If so, and if no one has made any meaningful breakthrough, might they all pursue this kind of deception just to stay afloat/“competitive”/relevant?

        Thanks for your insight

        1. dalenw · · focus · HN ↗
          Kinda. Off the top of my head, DeepSeek and their thinking model was pretty new and interesting. Multi input models are also newish (combined input of text, image, video, audio, etc). Then there's Jev, a recently release that has a lot of people talking. It isn't really an LLM, but also is one.

          Sam Altman believes he can train a model entirely on synthetic data, which he admits would not have human world knowledge but is interesting none the less, which likely led to their mathematical models.

          Overall models have become cheaper to run and smarter per token.

        2. mrandish · · focus · HN ↗
          > might they all pursue this kind of deception

          They might but multiple competitors engaging in ongoing deception as an intentional corporate strategy isn't required to explain what we're seeing. It's entirely possible to get the same clearly unethical outcome without any employees knowingly participating in an explicitly unethical plan of record.

          Instead it happens without overt coordination when individuals and groups within an org each pursue their local metrics and incentives. In isolation, no individual action seems obviously unethical on its own. They just look like 'optimizing performance', 'maintaining ASP or ARPU targets' or 'achieving operating margin', etc. Customers are still getting deceived and receiving less for their money than they think. The difference is most of the people involved in enabling it get to not feel bad about themselves.

        3. onemoresoop · · focus · HN ↗
          See Shepard tone. Similarly model releases could be engineered to appear that they’re always getting better by slowly degrading and upgrading at the right time. That plus hitting some benchmarks and making a lot of noise around that.
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