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Winning the visa lottery

112 points · 134 comments · neehao

  1. JoshTriplett · · focus · HN ↗
    > Equally striking is what did not happen. Employment of low-skill American workers at losing firms did not increase. Across all firms the effect of foreign hiring on US employment was zero or positive, and in a prespecified subsample of rural firms it was significantly positive, with an elasticity of 0.61, meaning that for every one percent increase in H-2B workers there was just over half a percent increase in US workers.

    > "If you don't allow firms to hire immigrant workers, they just become smaller firms," Lewis said. "They are not replaced with US workers. Instead, the output of the firm shrinks, and there are fewer total workers."

    This is incredibly important. Everyone who fears immigration is going to take their job should read this and realize that fear is not only false but inverted.

    1. anilakar · · focus · HN ↗
      > Everyone who fears immigration is going to take their job should read this and realize that fear is not only false

      This is only because immigrants are willing to do jobs at wages and working conditions that locals do not accept. Employers in the Finnish berry industry were just jailed for human trafficking. Meanwhile the same companies have been loudly complaining that no Finn wants to work for them.

      1. keeda · · focus · HN ↗
        > This is only because immigrants are willing to do jobs at wages and working conditions that locals do not accept.

        I would partially disagree with this assertion (immigrants are clearly very constrained in their job mobility, and their wages are correspondingly suppressed) but what TFA and other similar studies and history show, it's not like wages increase for native employees with lower immigration. Typically what happens is that there just aren't enough people to do the work, and so the work just doesn't get done, which is why businesses just don't grow.

        Sometimes the economics just don&#x27;t work out. Relevant berry-related example, California farmers often have had to let entire years&#x27; worth of strawberries rot in the field when they could not find enough farmhands to pick them. And they did try raising wages and perks: <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ucdavis.edu&#x2F;food&#x2F;news&#x2F;california-farmers-have-raised-wages-still-unable-find-enough-workers" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.ucdavis.edu&#x2F;food&#x2F;news&#x2F;california-farmers-have-ra...

        But sometimes even with the right economics there just are not enough workers. TFA gels with my experience working in Tech in the US for almost 2 decades, conducting countless interviews for positions that I know paid very well, and just not finding enough qualified candidates regardless of visa status, which constantly put significant constraints on our roadmaps.

        1. augment_me · · focus · HN ↗
          Article conveniently leaves out how much wages were raised. A 5% raise will not do shit. If you want non-immigrant workers you have to aim closer to 100-200%.

          Locals are not living in a house with 8 other day-workers and 1 bathroom, hence they need completely different ranges of wages.

          1. wallst07 · · focus · HN ↗
            Congrats, now nobody will buy your strawberries in this analogy.
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