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Winning the visa lottery

112 points · 134 comments · neehao

  1. JoshTriplett · · focus · HN ↗
    > Equally striking is what did not happen. Employment of low-skill American workers at losing firms did not increase. Across all firms the effect of foreign hiring on US employment was zero or positive, and in a prespecified subsample of rural firms it was significantly positive, with an elasticity of 0.61, meaning that for every one percent increase in H-2B workers there was just over half a percent increase in US workers.

    > "If you don't allow firms to hire immigrant workers, they just become smaller firms," Lewis said. "They are not replaced with US workers. Instead, the output of the firm shrinks, and there are fewer total workers."

    This is incredibly important. Everyone who fears immigration is going to take their job should read this and realize that fear is not only false but inverted.

    1. CobrastanJorji · · focus · HN ↗
      Nobody's immigration fears are data-driven, nor have they ever been.
      1. ifwinterco · · focus · HN ↗
        The data in the UK says GDP goes up, GDP per capita and salaries go down (which is exactly what you'd expect to happen from first principles...).

        So the trade is your country gets (sort of) richer overall and the elites get richer while the average person gets poorer.

        If you're okay with that outcome, then yes no need to worry about the data!

        1. laurencerowe · · focus · HN ↗
          > So the trade is your country gets (sort of) richer overall and the elites get richer while the average person gets poorer.

          While the average salary decreases in this scenario it is entirely down to composition effects and does not necessarily mean anyone gets poorer.

          Everyone existing employee's wages stay the same. The new immigrant paid less than the previous average but more than they were being paid in the country they moved from.

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