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Winning the visa lottery

112 points · 134 comments · neehao

  1. JoshTriplett · · focus · HN ↗
    > Equally striking is what did not happen. Employment of low-skill American workers at losing firms did not increase. Across all firms the effect of foreign hiring on US employment was zero or positive, and in a prespecified subsample of rural firms it was significantly positive, with an elasticity of 0.61, meaning that for every one percent increase in H-2B workers there was just over half a percent increase in US workers.

    > "If you don't allow firms to hire immigrant workers, they just become smaller firms," Lewis said. "They are not replaced with US workers. Instead, the output of the firm shrinks, and there are fewer total workers."

    This is incredibly important. Everyone who fears immigration is going to take their job should read this and realize that fear is not only false but inverted.

    1. anilakar · · focus · HN ↗
      > Everyone who fears immigration is going to take their job should read this and realize that fear is not only false

      This is only because immigrants are willing to do jobs at wages and working conditions that locals do not accept. Employers in the Finnish berry industry were just jailed for human trafficking. Meanwhile the same companies have been loudly complaining that no Finn wants to work for them.

      1. jltsiren · · focus · HN ↗
        Finnish wild berry industry does not really make sense. Imported cultivated berries set an effective price ceiling, which isn't high enough to hire Finnish workers. The ones you could hire are not productive enough, and the ones who could get the job done have better options.

        There are similar issues in agriculture, hospitality, and construction. Many jobs are seasonal and require you to live away from home. And because the outputs are supposed to be affordable, they don't pay enough to support you for the rest of the year. So you need an actual job, which is probably nicer and pays enough that you don't want the seasonal job anymore.

        1. kakacik · · focus · HN ↗
          > And because the outputs are supposed to be affordable

          Well market forces will quickly align these back to reality, unless somebody will keep pumping in tons of money to subsidize this.

          1. mitxela · · focus · HN ↗
            Possibly by shutting down the entire berry industry. That's a possible outcome of market forces.
          2. TeMPOraL · · focus · HN ↗
            > unless somebody will keep pumping in tons of money to subsidize this

            I think this is where the distinction between "imported" and "locally produced" berries becomes important. My guess is there are interests pumping money to keep local production going.

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