Thread

1. wewewedxfgdf · 1789939581 · focus · HN ↗

   I find it very hard to understand the things these AI CEO's say.

   He will probably get up there and say his companies products will destroy every citizen of their countries.

   1. howunfortunate · 1789941851 · focus · HN ↗

      People will say it's marketing but I find Occam's Razor highly favors the theory "they are true believers in AGI/ASI"

      This seems especially true for Anthropic employees.

      1. moshun · 1789942631 · focus · HN ↗

         Wouldn’t Occam’s razor say that the people speaking are highly motivated to continue being paid? Relying on their fear of future outcomes seems to be misplaced to judge the honesty of their statements.

         1. howunfortunate · 1789943070 · focus · HN ↗

            > continue being paid

            What I mean by Occam's Razor:

            There are many assumptions that need to be true to link "they say they're terrified of AI" to "they get paid more / longer", in both their own minds and everyone else's. It's a bit of 4D chess that could go their way, but also could go 100 different ways.

            In contrast, linking "they say it" to "they believe it" is simple.

            1. bheadmaster · 1789978520 · focus · HN ↗

               Occam's razor is about minimizing the number of assumptions needed for a conclusion. In this case, "they believe it" is the same number of assumptions as "they get paid" - just one.

               1. howunfortunate · 1789998515 · focus · HN ↗

                  Saying "I'm terrified of my job" does not normally lead fo getting paid more. Those links are the extra assumptions.

                  1. bheadmaster · 1790001101 · focus · HN ↗

                     An assumption is something that we can't know, yet assume is true for the sake of coming up with a theory. What we're assuming here is their intention.

                     The implication (or as you said, "the links"), that talking about how dangerous their product is leads to more money, is true regardless of their intention. They create hype, they get money, that's not an assumption, that's an observation.

                     The question is only if their intention was to make money, or are they speaking from the heart. That's the assumption we choose.

                     1. howunfortunate · 1790004628 · focus · HN ↗

                        > They create hype, they get money, that's not an assumption, that's an observation.

                        Because we can't observe the counterfactual world, this actually is just an assumption.

                        Diving their intention also still requires many assumptions about their intermediate beliefs that I find dubious

                        1. [deleted] · 1790017839 · focus · HN ↗

                           [deleted]

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