Thread

1. HarHarVeryFunny · 1789937583 · focus · HN ↗

   On a related note, I was reading yesterday that apparently the real bottleneck for Chinese production of AI accelerators is HBM production, not processors or ASML equipment.

   The lack of ASML EUV machines certainly hurts, and pushing DUV so hard results in abysmal yields of good chips, but you can compensate by running more wafers or making smaller chips, and the net result is that Huawei's Ascend production volume is limited by CXMT's HBM capacity not processor dies.

   The problem is that HBM manufacture requires many steps (die thinning, via drilling, plating, alignment) where the equipment used by everyone else (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) is also blocked by sanctions, so the Chinese are having to develop all of this themselves too, which they have, but yields are currently low, even when using shorter HBM stacks.

   1. jacquesm · 1789951954 · focus · HN ↗

      The only thing the West is achieving here is that sooner or later China will be able to compete on their own terms rather than ours. It may buy some time but the end result is very predictable.

      1. bigcat12345678 · 1789960301 · focus · HN ↗

         As other comments pointed out, that was always China's plan, the value here is really that when the Chinese overlord annillate the world's industrial competition, they'll have the moral high ground of being out of self-reliance and hostility by western monopolists.

         Edit:

         And, that, my fellow keyboard high-minded thinker but powerless corp peons, was also part of the China's plan all along.

         1. fangspire · 1789965791 · focus · HN ↗

            [dead]

            1. vkou · 1789973334 · focus · HN ↗

               > Was it also the Chinese plan all along to annihilate their own birh rate?

               No, that's generally what happens when countries stop being poor. Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, all have similar fertility rates.

               1. rmunn · 1789976036 · focus · HN ↗

                  But none of them had a government-mandated one-child policy (maximum, not minimum) for over three decades. That's a pretty major difference between China and neighboring countries.

                  1. vkou · 1789982694 · focus · HN ↗

                     And yet all of them have an even lower fertility rate than China.

                     On the one hand, you're proving my point. On the other hand, if you think that China's headed for a demographic disaster, so are all of those countries, and your thesis of blaming the CCP for everything... Falls a bit flat.

                     1. ricardobayes · 1789989786 · focus · HN ↗

                        China is headed for a demographic disaster, though. High schools are incredibly packed, middle schools, not so much and primary schools and kindergartens are kind of empty.

                        1. lazide · 1789994481 · focus · HN ↗

                           Everyone is, not just China.

                           1. belowavgiq · 1789996422 · focus · HN ↗

                              Everyone stupid enough to let that happen is.

                              There is a handful of developed countries where this is not an issue.

                              1. HarHarVeryFunny · 1789999278 · focus · HN ↗

                                 It's hard to say that it's stupidity (at least not country-specific stupidity) - it seems that globally, presumably due to the state of the world along many axis, many people are choosing to have fewer children, and it's happening on a large enough scale to have major consequences for things like the size of your tax base, trying to keep your economy growing, demographic concerns over an aging population with no-one to look after or pay for them etc, etc.

                                 Different countries are handling this in different ways, with encouraging immigration being the major one. Japan is facing a major lack of workers, with many businesses having to shut down as a result, but have decided to tackle it in a different way relying on advanced robotics as an alternative to immigration.

                                 There are very few developed countries NOT having this problem. Most of the population growth is in poorer parts of the world like Africa.

                                 1. belowavgiq · 1790000446 · focus · HN ↗

                                    Well, if there are >0 developed countries that have solved this (Israel, the GCC, dare I say fairly well-off MENA countries like Jordan, Algeria, Morocco, etc., and to a minor degree Botswana) then this proves wrong the hypothesis that modern hyper-development must inherently mean population collapse.

                                    Going purely by the evolution theory and natural selection, having so few children that there is a serious risk a population will disappear in a century or two, means losing. Needless to say, this is stupid. From the entire American continent, to Europe, India more recently, Thailand, China, the Koreas, Japan.

                                    Africans, Arabs, and some non-Arab Muslim populations will carry the torch. Much respect for not falling into the trap.

                                    1. HarHarVeryFunny · 1790006624 · focus · HN ↗

                                       Don't worry, we've got Elon Musk trying to single-handedly repopulate America.

                                       And if that fails, we've got "Idiocracy" to save the human species as the dumb-asses pump out babies as fast as you like.

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