Thread

1. gs17 · 1789928434 · focus · HN ↗

   A shame that this should if anything, lead to consumer DRAM prices getting even worse.

   1. nicoburns · 1789928897 · focus · HN ↗

      Why would more RAM supply lead to higher consumer prices?

      1. devy · 1789929637 · focus · HN ↗

         HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM are NOT the DDR4/5 that consumer markets need. Capacity allocation is leaning more to data center grade HBMs so less to produce dedicated DDR4/5 DRAMs. Supply demand will further drive up the consumer DRAM price! Note, the article mentions NO of new fabs is being constructed (all semiconductor manufacturers know that constructing more fabs means the boom/burst cycle will eventually kill them, so no one create more fabs) Perhaps the federal government need to step in here - the market doesn't fit the issue.

         1. chr15m · 1789946525 · focus · HN ↗

            No, completely wrong. Supply and demand will definitely fix this.

            More HBM4 will drive the price of it down. That will make it less profitable to produce. That will mean firms shift some production back to more profitable "consumer" RAM. Increased supply will lead to lower prices.

            A shortage is always followed by a glut.

            1. Dylan16807 · 1789954474 · focus · HN ↗

               What specifically did that say that you think is wrong?

               Supply is currently moving the wrong way. Supply and demand for consumer DRAM will get even worse, even if it will "definitely fix this" in the long run.

               And the fact that production is moving the wrong way suggests that in the short term supply and demand is actually doing more harm than good. HBM is so profitable it's radioactive.

               I don't know where you got the idea in another comment that all memory will get "very cheap quite soon". They're not increasing total memory production. (much/yet)

               1. Melatonic · 1789979835 · focus · HN ↗

                  China is about to massively compete. And doesn't Micron and someone else have new fabs in NY coming online ? I can't imagine they're going to exclusively make HBM.

                  Ram always goes through these boom and bust cycles. They're going to increase supply but not so much that they're eventually left with huge overproduction as usual.

                  Of course if Google researchers come up with more ram reduction tricks for newer AI architectures that could make a huge difference as well

                  1. Dylan16807 · 1789999700 · focus · HN ↗

                     I don't expect China to be a particularly large competitor in the next year or two affected by the decision in the article, but they'll help a lot in the long run.

                     Micron's NY fab had a press release two months ago that they started pouring the first concrete, so that's far from coming online.

                     If AI demand sticks around and buildouts stay cautious it could take much much longer than usual to build up enough capacity to push prices back down below $3/GB.

                     More efficient AI memory use risks even more demand for memory because you're now able to get even more performance per dollar; the benefit of extra memory has to be sufficiently far into diminishing returns for demand to drop overall.

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