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Samsung is expected to more than double output of its HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM

562 points · 458 comments · giuliomagnifico

HarHarVeryFunny · 1789937583 · focus · HN ↗
On a related note, I was reading yesterday that apparently the real bottleneck for Chinese production of AI accelerators is HBM production, not processors or ASML equipment.
The lack of ASML EUV machines certainly hurts, and pushing DUV so hard results in abysmal yields of good chips, but you can compensate by running more wafers or making smaller chips, and the net result is that Huawei's Ascend production volume is limited by CXMT's HBM capacity not processor dies.
The problem is that HBM manufacture requires many steps (die thinning, via drilling, plating, alignment) where the equipment used by everyone else (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) is also blocked by sanctions, so the Chinese are having to develop all of this themselves too, which they have, but yields are currently low, even when using shorter HBM stacks.
1. jacquesm · 1789951954 · focus · HN ↗
  The only thing the West is achieving here is that sooner or later China will be able to compete on their own terms rather than ours. It may buy some time but the end result is very predictable.
  1. audunw · 1789971327 · focus · HN ↗
    What the West is doing is forcing China into a situation which is impossible to sustain when their economic dividend runs out. Especially considering these investments are fuelled by an extremely high level of debt.
    And it’s not a given that they’ll catch up. I think it’s fair to say that their development of jet engines is on track to be obsolete before they’re competitive.
    They may in principle have established the technologies to be self sustained but that’s only relevant and sustainable if they develop an economy based on domestic consumption rather than exports. Which they are struggling with as well.
    HarHarVeryFunny · 1789997624 · focus · HN ↗
    What makes you think they don't have a domestic market?
    The Chinese domestic EV market is the largest in the world.
    Chinese factories are full of Chinese robotics.
    Companies like Huawei are struggling to meet the domestic demand for AI accelerators, while growing volume very fast year over year.
    The Chinese domestic AI market is massive, but we just don't hear much about it outside of the models that are also sold here. Can you even name the models that ByteDance (China's Meta) makes?
    As far as exports go, China is a low cost producer for many things. If the US doesn't want to buy high quality EV's costing 1/2 the price of a Tesla, then there are plenty of other countries happy to do so. The US is only 5% of the global population - there are lots of other consumers out there.

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