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Samsung is expected to more than double output of its HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM

562 points · 458 comments · giuliomagnifico

HarHarVeryFunny · 1789937583 · focus · HN ↗
On a related note, I was reading yesterday that apparently the real bottleneck for Chinese production of AI accelerators is HBM production, not processors or ASML equipment.
The lack of ASML EUV machines certainly hurts, and pushing DUV so hard results in abysmal yields of good chips, but you can compensate by running more wafers or making smaller chips, and the net result is that Huawei's Ascend production volume is limited by CXMT's HBM capacity not processor dies.
The problem is that HBM manufacture requires many steps (die thinning, via drilling, plating, alignment) where the equipment used by everyone else (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) is also blocked by sanctions, so the Chinese are having to develop all of this themselves too, which they have, but yields are currently low, even when using shorter HBM stacks.
1. jacquesm · 1789951954 · focus · HN ↗
  The only thing the West is achieving here is that sooner or later China will be able to compete on their own terms rather than ours. It may buy some time but the end result is very predictable.
  1. audunw · 1789971327 · focus · HN ↗
    What the West is doing is forcing China into a situation which is impossible to sustain when their economic dividend runs out. Especially considering these investments are fuelled by an extremely high level of debt.
    And it’s not a given that they’ll catch up. I think it’s fair to say that their development of jet engines is on track to be obsolete before they’re competitive.
    They may in principle have established the technologies to be self sustained but that’s only relevant and sustainable if they develop an economy based on domestic consumption rather than exports. Which they are struggling with as well.
    pinkmuffinere · 1789971742 · focus · HN ↗
    > They may in principle have established the technologies to be self sustained but that’s only relevant and sustainable if they develop an economy based on domestic consumption rather than exports. Which they are struggling with as well.
    Is this really true? Can't they just keep exporting "forever"? What requires them to find a domestic audience? I can think of some other countries that have done quite well mostly without finding a domestic audience (eg, Switzerland comes to mind, and frankly Europe might largely be in the same bucket).
    T-A · 1789973205 · focus · HN ↗
    <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/superpowers-are-forsaking-free-trade-ngaire-woods" rel="nofollow">https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/06/sup...
    jacquesm · 1789975567 · focus · HN ↗
    Totally non-biased of course.
    pixl97 · 1790003558 · focus · HN ↗
    Nothing exists in the world that is not biased. The key to knowledge is understanding what those biases are.
    yxhuvud · 1789975641 · focus · HN ↗
    Europe (by which I assume you mean EU or possibly Euro area) has a fairly balanced balance of trade overall.
    And a teeny-tiny country like Switzerland can't be usefully compared to something as big as China - the rest of the world can easily consume whatever the Swiss produce, but there are limits to how much Chinese can produce until consumption will have to shift to domestic consumption because the world doesn't have infinite ability to pay for its demand.
    That said don't expect any big change anytime soon - there are very strong political incentives to keep the status quo with China focusing a bit too much on exports.

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