Thread

1. gs17 · 1789928434 · focus · HN ↗

   A shame that this should if anything, lead to consumer DRAM prices getting even worse.

   1. nicoburns · 1789928897 · focus · HN ↗

      Why would more RAM supply lead to higher consumer prices?

      1. devy · 1789929637 · focus · HN ↗

         HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM are NOT the DDR4/5 that consumer markets need. Capacity allocation is leaning more to data center grade HBMs so less to produce dedicated DDR4/5 DRAMs. Supply demand will further drive up the consumer DRAM price! Note, the article mentions NO of new fabs is being constructed (all semiconductor manufacturers know that constructing more fabs means the boom/burst cycle will eventually kill them, so no one create more fabs) Perhaps the federal government need to step in here - the market doesn't fit the issue.

         1. chr15m · 1789946525 · focus · HN ↗

            No, completely wrong. Supply and demand will definitely fix this.

            More HBM4 will drive the price of it down. That will make it less profitable to produce. That will mean firms shift some production back to more profitable "consumer" RAM. Increased supply will lead to lower prices.

            A shortage is always followed by a glut.

            1. Dylan16807 · 1789954474 · focus · HN ↗

               What specifically did that say that you think is wrong?

               Supply is currently moving the wrong way. Supply and demand for consumer DRAM will get even worse, even if it will "definitely fix this" in the long run.

               And the fact that production is moving the wrong way suggests that in the short term supply and demand is actually doing more harm than good. HBM is so profitable it's radioactive.

               I don't know where you got the idea in another comment that all memory will get "very cheap quite soon". They're not increasing total memory production. (much/yet)

               1. chr15m · 1789956866 · focus · HN ↗

                  > What specifically did that say that you think is wrong?

                  You said:

                  > the market doesn't fit the issue.

                  I presume you meant "fix" not "fit". You are wrong that the market will not fix the issue. There are literally millions of observed cases across many markets of increased demand (or decreased supply) leading to higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices, which is why it's a fundamental law of economics.

                  The price of RAM will fall.

                  1. Dylan16807 · 1789957607 · focus · HN ↗

                     > You said:

                     That wasn't me.

                     Also they're talking about the short to medium term. On that time scale they're not wrong. The market is so far from fixing it right now, it's going in the opposite direction. The market is chasing HBM money which is outbidding everything else.

                     > The price of RAM will fall.

                     And if that might take 5+ years, that's not much comfort.

                     > higher prices leading to increased supply leading to lower prices

                     So far higher prices are causing barely any supply increases. (Note that the article we're commenting on is about a supply decrease.) Companies are barely trying to expand, and even if they do start trying hard it'll take a very long time.

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