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Samsung is expected to more than double output of its HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM

562 points · 458 comments · giuliomagnifico

  1. chr15m · · focus · HN ↗
    A shortage is almost always followed by a glut. Memory of all kinds is going to get very cheap due to supply and demand and substitution effects.
    1. cute_boi · · focus · HN ↗
      Not when companies have monopolies.
      1. chr15m · · focus · HN ↗
        There is no monopoly on computer memory.

        Yes, only a small number of companies produce memory because of capital requirements and complexity. When prices go up both of those things become less of a problem for investors who can see better return for lower risk on that high capital investment. They will then invest in production to capture those returns. This is literally the exact reason Samsung are doubling supply of this particular type of memory.

        High prices will fix the shortage.

        1. ajnin · · focus · HN ↗
          Memory factories cost billions to tens of billions, "investors" aren't going to spend that kind of money if they are not reasonably certain that they are going to make a profit, and the market is very uncertain right now with everybody bracing for a bubble burst at any moment. It's not the first time there has been such a shortage in the computer parts market, and the oligopoly, be it RAM or hard drives manufacturers, has always managed to keep prices high and production low enough to avoid a price crash after recovery.
          1. chr15m · · focus · HN ↗
            > hard drives manufacturers, has always managed to keep prices high

            No. Please take a look at the unit price for hard drive storage 10 years ago as a percentage of what it is today.

        2. bobmcnamara · · focus · HN ↗
          > There is no monopoly on computer memory.

          Never has been, but what makes you think the major players won't collude to keep prices high?

        3. 0x457 · · focus · HN ↗
          Yeah, its not like companies ever colluded to keep prices high...

          <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;DRAM_industry_price_fixing?useskin=vector" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;DRAM_industry_price_fixing?use...

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