Thread

1. amelius · 1789928450 · focus · HN ↗

   Will that be enough for AI's hunger?

   1. GoToRO · 1789929801 · focus · HN ↗

      It will be just in time for when AI will run very well on consumer hardware and the need for data centers will collapse.

      1. IshKebab · 1789930756 · focus · HN ↗

         That's never going to happen. By the time you can run current frontier models on your $10k desktop the frontier will have massively advanced and people will want those models instead.

         1. hypfer · 1789931551 · focus · HN ↗

            I'm not sure if this prediction will hold true.

            We're not seeing the progress in those "frontier models" that we have previously seen. There's certainly still gas left in tank tank, but we're way into the diminishing returns by now.

            Cloud inference still beats hardware investments by orders of magnitude of course, but that's only if your data doesn't really matter to you.

            1. airspresso · 1789931811 · focus · HN ↗

               We are certainly not in the diminishing returns phase for LLM progress. No sign of that yet.

               1. hypfer · 1789932066 · focus · HN ↗

                  Well I mean if I wanted to be extra pedantic, I would argue that we've been in that phase since LLMs were first introduced.

                  Before that, we had 0. After that, we had more than 1.

                  A leap as far as that is hard to recreate.

                  But that wasn't my point. That's just trolling.

                  The actual point is that LLMs aren't gaining new capabilities anymore. They just get more reliable at the ones they already have; turning what was a coin flip to some higher probability.

                  That's (intuitively speaking, not strictly mathematically speaking) kinda the mathematical definition of diminishing returns.

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