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People who know the most often sound the least certain

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ranger_danger · 1789841413 · focus · HN ↗
"As a rule, strong feelings about issues do not emerge from deep understanding." -Sloman and Fernbach
Also, the Dunning-Kruger effect still applies to smart people. You don't stop when you are estimating your ability correctly; as you learn more, you gain more awareness of your ignorance and continue being conservative with your self-estimates.
1. acheron · 1789842124 · focus · HN ↗
  Reminder that the “Dunning-Kruger effect” is not real. <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49160437">https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49160437
  1. readthenotes1 · 1789842836 · focus · HN ↗
    That reminds me of the old saying " who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?"
  2. atoav · 1789844232 · focus · HN ↗
    [delayed]
  3. ranger_danger · 1789848318 · focus · HN ↗
    Please re-read the first sentence of my previous comment.
2. sublinear · 1789851572 · focus · HN ↗
  Generally speaking, you can't really tell what someone knows based on their words or actions.
  Performative behavior is not a modern phenomenon. Deceitfulness is so effective we're not going to end it by discussing Dunning-Kruger every chance we get. Mere knowledge is not enough to defeat it, and you'll always be sorry when you underestimate your opponents.
  It's all ultimately a matter of trust, and that takes time most people don't have or don't want to give. It's more important to stack incentives to compel behavior and hedge your bets against people who seem off.
LoganDark · 1789841456 · focus · HN ↗
> All of these travel further than: "There are several plausible mechanisms here, and the result depends on which bottleneck dominates."
I'd assume the reason that quote doesn't travel is because people are tired of quotes written by AI. I'd use a real example here.
gjtz · 1789841540 · focus · HN ↗
Dude is using AI for a slop-post that complains that AI pundits are not persuasive enough and should take acting classes.
Really, the one thing missing in 2026 is more and better AI propaganda!
Grimeton · 1789841565 · focus · HN ↗
>The people who know the most often sound the least certain
As was beautifully demonstrated in this article.
fasterik · 1789842707 · focus · HN ↗
It's revealing that the author thinks that a podcast is the ideal venue to reason through complex technical issues. As opposed to, say, preprints on arXiv.
The "like" thing is less of a verbal fluency issue and more of a cultural one. You can listen to someone smart like Donald Knuth speak and he will definitely stammer and stutter a lot. The "like" thing is more of a West coast or California thing.
throwrioawfo · 1789842831 · focus · HN ↗
Not sure I agree with this. It's often true in SF, but that is largely an affectation, people imitating people like Peter Thiel etc. But not as true elsewhere
1. majormajor · 1789843156 · focus · HN ↗
  In medicine you want the doctor who's willing to admit "we don't understand the exact mechanism here" + also who wants more details from you before making a decision, vs confidently brushing you off and writing a prescription as fast as possible.
  Lawyers will usually give much less-certain answers to questions like "is it legal to do X" than lay people as well because they're aware of much more nuance in the law. (Not referring to the wishy-washy corporate-law answers given to avoid liability here, but in outside convo about issues.)
2. sublinear · 1789851078 · focus · HN ↗
  Yes, there is a whole world out there outside of SF. As much as we'd like it to be true, arrogance itself cannot be contained by a mere city!
altairprime · 1789843167 · focus · HN ↗
[dead]
samstokes · 1789843317 · focus · HN ↗
```
  The best lack all conviction, while the worst
  Are full of passionate intensity.
```
- W.B. Yeats
1. boris · 1789843996 · focus · HN ↗
  "The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt."
  Bertrand Russell
2. r_lee · 1789844521 · focus · HN ↗
  > while the worst > Are full of passionate intensity.
  sounds like the ideal entrepreneur to give funding to
InfiniteAscent · 1789844193 · focus · HN ↗
Just a little more effort and STEM people will discover the social sciences. Cute.

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