> By the finale, Kalshi’s “Survivor” market had reached a volume of $32.7 million
I don't get this. How are people "betting" on something that is "known information" for other people? What's the point? I get betting on stuff that no one can know, but who's taking "the other side" on these bets? Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer?
"There are three ways to learn. The most noble is by thinking and getting to the truth yourself. The second, which is still pretty good, is by imitating those who do. And the third one is through pain."
In prediction markets, imitation is the best policy
NitpickLawyer · · focus · HN ↗
I don't get this. How are people "betting" on something that is "known information" for other people? What's the point? I get betting on stuff that no one can know, but who's taking "the other side" on these bets? Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer?
echelon · · focus · HN ↗
Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.
conmod278 · · focus · HN ↗
In prediction markets, imitation is the best policy