Thread

1. Arubis · 1789753289 · focus · HN ↗

   Dedollarizing the world economy has more net losers than the US (though that's the obvious one).

   It's not without its benefits -- over the last couple decade, the US has found ways to weaponize access to USD, so if you're not a fan of having a country other than your own able to effectively regulate or sanction you and your business, there's some niceties here.

   Being able to trade and invest in a stable, highly liquid, easily converted, low risk currency was a net win for most of the world for about half a century. There isn't an obvious replacement, so we'll just see more friction.

   1. nostrademons · 1789753559 · focus · HN ↗

      It's kind of a prelude to a Thucydides Trap.

      The problem with replacing the world reserve currency with something else is that nobody can agree on what that something else should be. Expect to see a lot of jockeying for power as people realize the U.S. isn't the world hegemon anymore. Jockeying, on a state level, usually means war.

      1. jltsiren · 1789756143 · focus · HN ↗

         That "usually" was in a different world.

         Before the industrial revolution, there was almost no sustained economic growth and business was essentially a zero-sum game. Wars of conquest were high-risk business ventures that promised higher returns than actual business.

         Then the industrial revolution happened. Economic growth made business more lucrative, while wars got deeper into the negative-sum territory. Leaders were slow to understand that, which is why the 19th and 20th centuries saw a series of increasingly destructive wars that left almost everyone worse off.

         But there have been no wars between major powers in the last 80 years. Maybe people in power have realized that all-out wars are no longer productive. But there have been plenty of lesser wars: civil wars, proxy wars, and wars against much weaker states. As well as regional wars, where at least one of the parties is so dysfunctional that it does not benefit from positive-sum business.

         1. jopsen · 1789758111 · focus · HN ↗

            In history 80 years is nothing.

            But since the industrial revolution 80 years is something.

            I hope it's a trend: but living in Europe right now, I do feel like our strongest ally are giving our enemies reason doubt the deterrence we've collectively built over the past 77 years.

            We had to deploy armed troops to Greenland to deter an ally from invasion.

            The deterrence to war we've spilled blood building for 77 years.

            Economics is part of why we haven't had wars, collective deterrence probably had something to do with it too. Without NATO who is to say how many smaller nations Russia/USSR would have invaded for the fun of it.

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.