Thread

1. 1over137 · 1789747701 · focus · HN ↗

   US everything has become unappetizing for everyone outside the US.

   1. gradus_ad · 1789752891 · focus · HN ↗

      There must always be a hegemon. Will it be Europe? No, too weak and divided..will it be China? No, too authoritarian..

      The US remains the best option among a mixed field of weak, corrupt, divided and authoritarian alternatives.

      1. JumpCrisscross · 1789753113 · focus · HN ↗

         We’re seeing a return to multilateral regional hegemony. Russia, China, India, a new Persia, Israel and Turkey duking it out in Asia. The edges of those conflicts trying to bring war back to Europe. And America getting potentially balanced by China and Europe in the Americas, with the Pacific theatre figuring out its own balancing game plan.

         The wild card being this will be the first time the world has entered this sort of unstable state since the invention of nuclear weapons. I expect to see a total failure of non-proliferation and the first nuclear civil war in my lifetime, if not the first nuclear war of territorial conquest. (I do not expect to see the first nuclear extermination.)

         1. rurp · 1789755910 · focus · HN ↗

            This seems right to me. Nuclear proliferation could very well end up being the most consequential legacy of this administration. Their malicious incompetence in this area has dimmed the outlook for humanity to a material degree.

            The amount of countries with nukes is going to increase dramatically in the medium term. That will mean exponentially more opportunities for a nuclear conflict to break out. I think there is a very good chance we see a nuclear war in the next couple decades, and the odds are dramatically higher than they were pre-trump.

            The only spot I sort of disagree is that I think it's an uncomfortably short hop from a moderately sized nuclear war to a global nuclear war, and I think the chances of the latter are uncomfortably high now as well.

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