The framing of how we think about AI has really been cultivated by a quite homogeneous group of people. These people, like all people that belong to a sub-culture, are almost certainly prone to groupthink.
It's extremely important to see that group as such. That it is not thousands of individual perspectives but a chorus of connected/aligned people who have all read the same things and talked to the same people and are rewarded implicitly for thinking a similar way.
Many of them read HN and are offended I put them this way. But it's inescapable that we as humans have this flaw when we're surrounded by a culture.
There's another universe where we do not constantly compare AI to nukes. I bet that world has a lower P(doom).
I am not offended by whatever you believe. The brain believes/makes up all kinds of stories when facing the unpredictable. It has multiple layers devoted to predictions over different time horizons.
When those pedictions dont align it makes up story or breaks. No one created such a stupid system. We are just stuck with it.
The stories once upon a time did make a diff in solving coordination problem not the unpredictable problem. Today the chimp troupe has become so large and diverse, even the coordination problem is extremely hard to solve. Stories barely keep in sync a few thousand people in a frontier lab. This is natural -stories were always a bad hack.
throwaway13337 · · focus · HN ↗
It's extremely important to see that group as such. That it is not thousands of individual perspectives but a chorus of connected/aligned people who have all read the same things and talked to the same people and are rewarded implicitly for thinking a similar way.
Many of them read HN and are offended I put them this way. But it's inescapable that we as humans have this flaw when we're surrounded by a culture.
There's another universe where we do not constantly compare AI to nukes. I bet that world has a lower P(doom).
ggsj · · focus · HN ↗
jambalaya8 · · focus · HN ↗