This whole "we can't trust the people warning us because they're either weirdos or involved" deal is such a strange angle when you can just start from zero, look at what's known to be happening right now, and draw a very straight line to catastrophe.
It's like being concerned Oppenheimer and company are exaggerating when looking at the first nuclear tests at the same time.
There is a wide gulf between catastrophe and killing us all, and its not just that these people are weird, they seem to be complete clowns, tossing out % predictions about incalculable future states like spock in star trek. Total clown show.
1. Researchers that have forgotten more about this technology than the average HNer will ever learn
2. Random HNers that think that suddenly they understand the problem better than researchers that have spent their lives on it
This is just anti intellectualism in a different coat, and it's not much different from people denying environmental scientists talking about climate change or biologists talking about vaccines.
But everyone here thinks they are the smart protagonist and certainly they would never hold a position so silly!
Anti-intellectual? Because they don't believe claims that are backed up only by untested hypotheticals?
If we're going to have whistleblowers emerge declaring a 10% chance we all die because of AI, we're going to need more than vibes. Real experts can explain their position plainly. That has not happened here.
> Real experts can explain their position plainly. That has not happened here.
It has, over, and over, and over. There is literally a book on it. <a href="https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/" rel="nofollow">https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/
You said "Real experts can explain their position plainly.". The experts have explained their position plainly. If you disagree, you should be able to explain your position plainly; "feels like vibes to me" is not an explanation, it's a feeling.
If you want to argue that there's something invalidating the arguments, by all means do. But it's really tiring to get many variations of "nobody's made the case for it!" or "there's no evidence for it!" or "vibes!".
My position is that there are too many off-ramps between us and the proposed inevitability. And the argument is not symmetric. The null hypothesis is that the world continues to function. The burden of proof is on the authors of the book to show that human destruction is an inevitability as the result of this technology, and they have failed to show that.
This is cited in multiple reviews of the book in reputable publications. The book simply fails to compel belief.
arcticfox · · focus · HN ↗
It's like being concerned Oppenheimer and company are exaggerating when looking at the first nuclear tests at the same time.
jackmott42 · · focus · HN ↗
solenoid0937 · · focus · HN ↗
1. Researchers that have forgotten more about this technology than the average HNer will ever learn
2. Random HNers that think that suddenly they understand the problem better than researchers that have spent their lives on it
This is just anti intellectualism in a different coat, and it's not much different from people denying environmental scientists talking about climate change or biologists talking about vaccines.
But everyone here thinks they are the smart protagonist and certainly they would never hold a position so silly!
rpdillon · · focus · HN ↗
If we're going to have whistleblowers emerge declaring a 10% chance we all die because of AI, we're going to need more than vibes. Real experts can explain their position plainly. That has not happened here.
JoshTriplett · · focus · HN ↗
It has, over, and over, and over. There is literally a book on it. <a href="https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/" rel="nofollow">https://ifanyonebuildsit.com/
rpdillon · · focus · HN ↗
JoshTriplett · · focus · HN ↗
If you want to argue that there's something invalidating the arguments, by all means do. But it's really tiring to get many variations of "nobody's made the case for it!" or "there's no evidence for it!" or "vibes!".
rpdillon · · focus · HN ↗
This is cited in multiple reviews of the book in reputable publications. The book simply fails to compel belief.