The framing of how we think about AI has really been cultivated by a quite homogeneous group of people. These people, like all people that belong to a sub-culture, are almost certainly prone to groupthink.
It's extremely important to see that group as such. That it is not thousands of individual perspectives but a chorus of connected/aligned people who have all read the same things and talked to the same people and are rewarded implicitly for thinking a similar way.
Many of them read HN and are offended I put them this way. But it's inescapable that we as humans have this flaw when we're surrounded by a culture.
There's another universe where we do not constantly compare AI to nukes. I bet that world has a lower P(doom).
I don't think I agree. In fact I think most of the too-online pontification from P(Doom)-ers and EA and the Rationalists and the like is, if anything, sorta missing the mark more than it hits.
They got the One Big Thing right, which is that AI progress was likely to race way ahead of consensus predictions. And props to them for that. They had vision we didn't.
But their actual advice and specific fears remain, as then, at least as much paranoia as insight. They were right, but they aren't helping any more than any other fringe group.
We need to trust the actual scientists and engineers to save us here, not the bloggers. Which when phrased that way seems hopeful and not doomerist.
I'm talking specifically about discourse like Jacob Coxon's tweet thread and later communication. Those are the folks[1] you want to be listening to, not the nuts with the blogs, no matter how much a particular conspiracy confirms your priors.
Salvation will come in a whitepaper, not a screed.
throwaway13337 · · focus · HN ↗
It's extremely important to see that group as such. That it is not thousands of individual perspectives but a chorus of connected/aligned people who have all read the same things and talked to the same people and are rewarded implicitly for thinking a similar way.
Many of them read HN and are offended I put them this way. But it's inescapable that we as humans have this flaw when we're surrounded by a culture.
There's another universe where we do not constantly compare AI to nukes. I bet that world has a lower P(doom).
ajross · · focus · HN ↗
I don't think I agree. In fact I think most of the too-online pontification from P(Doom)-ers and EA and the Rationalists and the like is, if anything, sorta missing the mark more than it hits.
They got the One Big Thing right, which is that AI progress was likely to race way ahead of consensus predictions. And props to them for that. They had vision we didn't.
But their actual advice and specific fears remain, as then, at least as much paranoia as insight. They were right, but they aren't helping any more than any other fringe group.
We need to trust the actual scientists and engineers to save us here, not the bloggers. Which when phrased that way seems hopeful and not doomerist.
mitthrowaway2 · · focus · HN ↗
As far as I'm aware, lots of them are actually deeply concerned about AI killing everyone.
ajross · · focus · HN ↗
Salvation will come in a whitepaper, not a screed.
[1] And yes, that includes Amodei and Altman.