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How SpaceX streamlined the Raptor engine

249 points · 125 comments · JumpCrisscross

  1. WalterBright · · focus · HN ↗
    According to Isaacson's biography of Musk, Musk relentlessly challenges the existence of every part in Tesla and SpaceX machines. He's willing to go too far, having to sometimes put a part back in.

    Everything in the manufacturing process is also challenged to justify its existence.

    This is how he managed to reduce the costs by 90%.

    1. xondono · · focus · HN ↗
      > According to Isaacson's biography

      Isaacson’s “biographies” are glorified puff pieces. Musk is as unrecognizable in his as Jobs was in his.

      Both Tesla and SpaceX had teams keeping Musk busy on bs just so that the engineering teams could do their work.

      The second he took control, we got the cybertruck and the starship, the worse products both companies ever built (or attempted, in the case of the starship).

      > Musk relentlessly challenges the existence of every part

      This sounds insightful until you find yourself debating with the CEO for the eleventh time about how his high-school understanding of the physics involved breaks down in a particular case.

      Musk is very lucky to be moving such quantities of money that his companies are big enough to protect themselves from him, if you ever wonder how Musk would fare on a tight budget, look no further than the Oceangate.

      1. sebmellen · · focus · HN ↗
        Do you remember when he bought Twitter and fired everyone, and the mass media and employee outcry was that a) the service would stop working and b) he would bankrupt the company, yet a few years later it’s massively more successful than Twitter ever was as a public business?

        Regardless your thoughts on Elon, his drug habits, and his political brashness, I don’t think you can say he’s in any way close to the Oceangate guy. There is something legitimately special about him and his collective.

        1. xondono · · focus · HN ↗
          Yes, Twitter is so “successful” Musk had to write off 50% of his “investment” out of the gate, and had to come up with an AI-hyped merger with SpaceX to compensate the banks that went in with him.

          The only reason Twitter has more active users is that it removed some of the protections for bots, in particular broad filtering coming from certain country involved in a war.

          You don’t think Musk is any close to the Oceangate guy? Let’s review some interesting decisions by his companies then:

          - Musk mucking around with the blue checks and the bot filters in Twitter skyrocketed the amount of scams in the platform.

          - Tesla uses very strict NDAs and settlement to silence the reporting of accidents

          - The infamous electric door handle that locks up Teslas when power goes out was an obvious point of failure, it was ignored, people died, and now several countries have legislation against it

          - Reportedly Musk had safety lines and other safety features in the factories removed for serious reasons like “not liking yellow”

          - Any understanding of how to parse public insurance data will show you Tesla’s have accident rates that are multiples of other brands

          - The Starship, a vessel that is intended for human transport, has no safe abort system, no way to fit one in its current state, and no plans to modify that.

          Just a reminder that even a very SpaceX-friendly count (in which flights that did not attempt to land are considered “good”) puts the current reliability rate at <40%.

          As a naive boundary, for clearing the 97.5% predicted crew survival, SpaceX would need to fly in the order of 300 good Starship launches.

          Those are just of the top of my head.

          1. ETH_start · · focus · HN ↗
            Independent web traffic analysis shows that the average X user spends 12 to 14 minutes on the site. It's impossible that these are bots.
            1. xondono · · focus · HN ↗
              Are you seriously claiming that as a fact? You really believe 12 minutes is too long for a bot or something? Because that has to be the lamest excuse I’ve ever heard.

              Measuring bot activity became harder after the API changes (I wonder why!), but there’s been some attempts at finding ways to estimate bot activity. All those measures are compatible with increases in bot activity, and incompatible with bot decline.

              1. ETH_start · · focus · HN ↗
                This is not what I personally believe. This is what experts in web analystics believe. Bots don't behave like that. They don't simulate human browsing activity by staying on a site for 10 to 12 minutes, entering the site directly (through url or bookmark), and browsing 14 pages during their visit.
                1. vinay_ys · · focus · HN ↗
                  Bots are perfectly capable of simulating long user sessions. Many large-volume scrapping traffic for example simulate lots of long persistent user sessions.
                2. xondono · · focus · HN ↗
                  Experts from 2005 I guess, because that’s the last time I heard about bots not being able to mimic human-like interactions.

                  Everything you’re talking about is trivial to automate with playwright.

                  1. ETH_start · · focus · HN ↗
                    It's inconceivable that X would employ bots to mimic humans just to inflate its own web analytics.
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