Thread

1. shoobiedoo · 1789687401 · focus · HN ↗

   This article calls it a "quiet emergency" but even as a foreigner living in Japan there are alarm bells everywhere. And the government buying 150 F35's is just a slap in the face when there's a massive chunk of the population that is, very quickly, going to need extra care.

   I looked into becoming a care aid myself as I'm tired of office culture in Japan and have some experience in that field. I was shocked to see that they start at less than 10USD, and working your way up takes years, decades even.

   Continuing to kick this can down the road is going to be an absolute disaster.

   1. stickfigure · 1789690944 · focus · HN ↗

      > buying 150 F35's

      Your immediate neighbor is going on an imperialist streak right now, and Xi says he wants the fireworks to start in his lifetime. I don't know if F35s are the right answer for Japan, but Xi isn't that young. Get ready however you can.

      1. echelon · 1789692672 · focus · HN ↗

         The F-35s are for the children and grandchildren. It's to safeguard their future.

         Democracy is important and it isn't free.

         1. noree · 1789693488 · focus · HN ↗

            If the Japanese are looking for technology to protect themselves against a heavily armed imperial force they should be mass producing Shaheds instead of paying tributes to the US MIC.

            1. strictnein · 1789693644 · focus · HN ↗

               They should be mass producing Iran's drone?

               1. rambojohnson · 1789694900 · focus · HN ↗

                  who is winning that war right now?

                  1. strictnein · 1789695436 · focus · HN ↗

                     Holy non-sequitur batman.

                     Why would Japan mass produce an inferior product when they would easily be able to design and build a far superior one? "Shahed" isn't just another word for drone, it's a specific company's name.

                     1. hdgvhicv · 1789714105 · focus · HN ↗

                        America would buy 150 American planes rather than build is own drones which would be superior to anything Iran builds, to keep America on side.

                        1. rambojohnson · 1789778597 · focus · HN ↗

                           [dead]

                     2. [deleted] · 1789738644 · focus · HN ↗

                        [deleted]

               2. noree · 1789696132 · focus · HN ↗

                  They certainly should not be buying 150 f35s judging by recent track records.

                  1. strictnein · 1789696831 · focus · HN ↗

                     There has been one US F35 damaged in combat. That's total, across all the areas its been in and all the countries that have deployed them, starting in 2018. They've been up against the best air defense systems in the world in Venezuela and Iran and they received a single scratch.

                     The countries acquiring them are doing so because they are best strike fighters on the planet, and it's not even close. Unless you know something that Norway, Japan, England, the Netherlands, etc don't know?

                     1. tw1984 · 1789700349 · focus · HN ↗

                        give yourself a break. F-35 doesn't even have long range a2a missiles comparable to PL-17 in service. its radar is 2nd class at best, a full generation behind the Chinese counterpart and heavily rely on Chinese rare earth.

                        it is 2026 now, partially de-industrialized US no longer has the best weapons in the world. that is why it is struggling to even beat Iran.

                        1. orwin · 1789722915 · focus · HN ↗

                           The radar might be second class (not sure I would go that far, it's not a Thales radar but it's still good), but the plane is built with EW in mind, and that makes it useful.

                           What makes it bad is how hard the cooling is, its range without range extenders (that break stealth) and the maintenance.

                        2. strictnein · 1790050077 · focus · HN ↗

                           Yeah, I wonder why the F-35 doesn't have a couple of 20 foot long missiles hanging off the side of it. I truly can't think of a single reason.

                           Clearly the Americans are just dumb. Or, maybe, just maybe, a stealth strike fighter uses an internal weapons bay? While the planes flying with the PL-17s strapped to it have the radar cross section of a city bus?

                           1. tw1984 · 1790064800 · focus · HN ↗

                              or maybe because the Chinese have been flying the J-36 for 20 months that has a large enough internal weapon bay for PL-17.
                     2. kalleboo · 1789724893 · focus · HN ↗

                        I thought the cable leaks showed that Norway picked the F35 due to diplomatic pressure from the US rather than an impartial test of suitability?
            2. hattmall · 1789696969 · focus · HN ↗

               Shahed drone's are not serious weapons of war. Japan could easily produce millions of them if needed. The drones are good for antagonizing and terrorising a civilian population. A few F35s and bomber squads could reliably deplete and destroy the entire Iranian drone stock and manufacturing capacity if there was the desire and higher tolerance for civilian casualties.

               In other words if Japan were in a position where they were willing to use drones to indiscriminately attack soft targets an F-35 would be about a trillion times more effective.

               1. nixon_why69 · 1789698608 · focus · HN ↗

                  They were serious enough to defeat the US Navy and Air Force..
               2. ekianjo · 1789698659 · focus · HN ↗

                  > few F35s and bomber squads could reliably deplete and destroy the entire Iranian drone stock and manufacturing capacity if there was the desire and higher tolerance for civilian casualties

                  the current admin does not care about civilians casualties. remember the tomahawk on school girls? so what are they waiting for if it was that easy?

                  1. qlte · 1789699975 · focus · HN ↗

                     Yeah, it's laughable to think that somewhere in the DoD a map labeled like "Iran: Huge Undefended Drone Warehouses" has just been sitting around unused because Hegseth/Trump keep vetoing it on account of potential civilian casualties.

                     Sure, we could easily wrap this whole thing up a couple days but the admin is choosing to remain stuck in a quagmire that's dooming GOP in the midterms. Based on a moral red line, of all things. Makes perfect sense.

                     1. klrefg · 1789713780 · focus · HN ↗

                        They obviously could start methodically destroying civilian infrastructure to cause a huge humanitarian crisis which might force the Iranian government to collapse. They have clearly chosen not to commit to that approach so far.

                        1. Semkas · 1789719528 · focus · HN ↗

                           These kinds of arguments are obviously vacuous: The US could also "win" any war with a non-nuclear opponent by nuking every major city. But the fact that they don't is not something worth calling restraint.

                           1. gpt5 · 1789727916 · focus · HN ↗

                              It’s definitely worth appreciating. The world could have looked very differently and might still fall into that trap.
                        2. orwin · 1789722650 · focus · HN ↗

                           They did that btw. Is there any railroad bridge still standing in south Iran?
                  2. hattmall · 1789791566 · focus · HN ↗

                     >remember the tomahawk on school girls?

                     Realistically this happened due to high confidence with regard to the presence of a high value target. It's awful, but there was assuredly a calculus and the goal is less collateral damage over the long term. There wasn't just an oops missile or multi-year old intelligence.

                     OTOH attack the drone capacity would require undetermined strikes on logistical networks and downstream suppliers. It wouldn't be hard, but there would be far more civilian casualties and many of the strikes would be non-beneficial.

               3. mysecretaccount · 1789699027 · focus · HN ↗

                  > The drones are good for antagonizing and terrorising [sic] a civilian population. A few F35s and bomber squads could reliably deplete and destroy the entire Iranian drone stock and manufacturing capacity if there was the desire and higher tolerance for civilian casualties.

                  Absolutely incorrect.

                  - The purpose of these drones is to establish deterrence.

                  - US is not capable of reaching every inch of Iranian airspace with F-35s unless it is willing to accept a significant casualty rate among pilots.

                  - Even if they could, the US has not been able to decimate Iran's drone stockpile even in the areas it can ~safely reach.

                  The age of the fighter jet is over.

                  1. galangalalgol · 1789701769 · focus · HN ↗

                     Quite possibly. But shaheds aren't the answer either. After Fukushima, the plutonium 240 fuel for the breeders they don't want to run anymore has been piling up. Not as good as 239, but that is what they should be looking at.
                  2. stickfigure · 1789705668 · focus · HN ↗

                     Because of stealth jets, the US is capable of destroying every single power plant in the country, with all the horrible human cost you would expect. Exactly like Putin has been trying to do in Ukraine. Except, they could actually do it.

                     Trump and Hegseth may be bumbling idiots but so far they have been showing restraint. The jets seem to be pretty effective at making big holes in the ground, I wouldn't call their demise just yet.

                     1. jiggawatts · 1789707585 · focus · HN ↗

                        It would be sufficient to destroy just the Asaluyeh gas infrastructure near the South Pars field. It's easily approached over the open sea where Iran has negligible air defences, and it is rather... flammable. It provides something like 75% of Iran's domestic gas supply and in turn fuels most of their power stations.

                        Their economy would implode within days.

                        Of course, this would be a horrific crime against humanity, comparable in impact on civilians to dropping a nuke on a capital city.

                        Speaking of which: my partner knows next to nothing about warfare and while watching the news I had to explain that the US Navy submarine mentioned by the presenter isn't just for taking out enemy ships, it is a nuclear-armed "world ending" weapon that could simply... erase... a country. Or two. Probably three. In under an hour.

                     2. nixon_why69 · 1789707738 · focus · HN ↗

                        The scoreboard says otherwise. US jets can't even reach the northeastern half of the country because the refueling tankers can't get close enough to give them the range.

                        Additionally, Iran had deterrence that you're not giving them credit for. If they destroyed Saudi and UAE's water desalination, it would be a mass casualty event.

                        1. stickfigure · 1789748084 · focus · HN ↗

                           B2s can absolutely reach the northeastern half of the country. So can cruise missiles. The current standoff is a choice, not lack of capability.

                           Yes, I imagine deterrence is part of that equation.

                           Nevertheless, it's too early to declare the end of the jet. We will probably get there someday, but that day is not today.

                           1. nixon_why69 · 1789751957 · focus · HN ↗

                              Ok, yeah, B2s flying from Missouri could do it, at great expense, with multiple refuelings. We're talking about putting doomsday cross-planet planes on missions to drop a couple 1000 lb bombs.

                              Economics matter.

                     3. mysecretaccount · 1789713899 · focus · HN ↗

                        The US and Russia can destroy every power plant in their respective opposing countries with I(C/R)BMs, but this would involve breaking taboos of which even their respective leaders are fearful.

                        The fighter jet is not capable of destroying every power plant in Iran without risking pilot casualties, an endeavor for which the US lacks political capital. The drone has no such issue. A rational nation would have shifted primary investment into medium-range drones many yesterdays ago.

                        1. stickfigure · 1789748683 · focus · HN ↗

                           > Russia can destroy every power plant in their respective opposing countries with I(C/R)BMs

                           I don't think this is true. Sure if you count nuclear weapons, but that's not on the table.

                           Russia has already used IRBMs. Even Putin tacitly admitted they failed to hit their targets. It's entirely likely that Russian ICBMs simply do not have the accuracy required to strike something as small as a power plant with a conventional payload.

                           Even China is building stealth jets and aircraft carriers. The people making these decisions know more about their capabilities than you or me.

                           Shipping through Hormuz is already up to about half prewar levels. I don't think Iran's strategy is working very well for them.

                  3. belorn · 1789729945 · focus · HN ↗

                     The war in Ukraine demonstrated how cheap drones could overwhelm more expensive defense systems and make favorable trades. It has now also started to show that, as defense against cheap drones has gotten better, more expensive jet drones are being used that can bypass the now cheaper and slower defense systems that is designed to target cheap drones. As such we can expect to see more expensive and faster defense systems. If they then want to make even faster and bigger drones they might make it so big that put a person in it to fly it, thus making it easier to reuse and better to adapt to different defense systems.

                     And so the cycle is completed. The only real question seems to be if the pilot in the fighter jet will remain a benefit when the drone is increased to that scale.

                     1. wisprp · 1789810128 · focus · HN ↗

                        > The only real question seems to be if the pilot in the fighter jet will remain a benefit when the drone is increased to that scale.

                        With the modern tech level, silicon-based systems can react faster, make fewer mistakes and feel less fatigue. So it all circles back to the relative wetware price.

                  4. hattmall · 1789791133 · focus · HN ↗

                     >- US is not capable of reaching every inch of Iranian airspace with F-35s unless it is willing to accept a significant casualty rate among pilots.

                     The casualty rate would not be high at all, though all casualties are significant. There would be some, but again this is why I said in a serious war, pilot casualties would be expected. It also would not be as if they need to hit the whole country at once. There would be fronts and lines and structured approach.

                     Right now the US is working around internal issues with the IRGC. The US doesn't even want to destroy all of Iran's stockpile or production facilities. They only want to destroy those which are in the possession of the IRGC factions actively engaging in combat. Even more pressing than destroying the drones is eliminating the particular IRGC faction heads that are responsible for attack. The US isn't conducting any sort of sweeping campaign at all, every attack has been precisely targeted to hit certain commanders. Even the ones making headlines for civilian casualties. It's just more palatable to let everyone assume you made a mistake than to come out and say, "We determined there would be less collateral damage over an extended horizon if we conduct this strike now."

            3. jszymborski · 1789700149 · focus · HN ↗

               They would need and can manage both fighter jet procurement and drone manufacturing. Although a partnership with Iran, China's close ally, would probably be ill conceived.
            4. m4rtink · 1789723425 · focus · HN ↗

               Why not both ?

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