Will these models eventually replace all knowledge work, leaving lawyers, doctors, product managers, software developers, and others out of a job?
If the benefits were shared across humanity, that could bring us closer to utopia. My worry is that we’ll instead end up with a handful of even wealthier billionaires and millions of people out of work.
I mean that's what all of these execs are openly telling everyone: they want you out of work, they want their ai to be the one to bring the world to it's knees, they want to surveille every second of your day, they want killer drones to use, they want to lay all of your cities to rubble and build "paradises" on top of them like in gaza.
They also openly tell you what they are afraid of btw: collective worker power. something that is massively lacking in our industry, although i feel like it would be one of the easiest industries to unionize in terms of # of workers.
Interesting interview I just watched about how powerful and dangerous these "wishes" or "prophecies" are especially in the hands of the ultra-wealthy: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR7grHa1NR0" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR7grHa1NR0
> Will these models eventually replace all knowledge work, leaving lawyers, doctors, product managers, software developers, and others out of a job?
Effectively yes, in the current forms. Those professions will likely evolve, but the traditional forms (ie writing code by hand, writing law filings by hand etc) are all dead.
in that case, legal cases would just come down to who has more compute lol. Many times cases win on their merits, but we've also seen evidence where overwhelming legal pressure can influence cases.
May I just note that there are other jurisdictions on this planet that are less money-biased than than the US one but will be disrupted by law-LLMs as well?
It seems much more probable to me that these LLMs will make good things worse than that they will make bad things better.
Writing a brief by hand isn't the knowledge work of being an attorney, it's knowing what to write. The writing it down is the most trivial part.
If we have enough energy and raw materials to keep building, yes, it will be an utopia made real. But if there is energy scarcity, then other two outcomes can arise.
Doubt it. When someone can go to Astra MD for 75% of what they used to go to the doctor for, then the remaining doctors only have 25% as many visits. When doctors only have 25% as many visits, they have to compete on price and they make less per visit.
Same argument for plumbers. Everyone always jokes about what a good time it is to be a plumber. But what happens when all the software engineers turn to plumbing? Suddenly it's not such a good time to be a plumber anymore.
What happens when the AI makes a mistake with a diagnosis? I can hear it now 'Oh how perceptive you are, yes that pain in your knee could have been a torn meniscus'.
submeta · · focus · HN ↗
If the benefits were shared across humanity, that could bring us closer to utopia. My worry is that we’ll instead end up with a handful of even wealthier billionaires and millions of people out of work.
cjjuice · · focus · HN ↗
ceejayoz · · focus · HN ↗
cidd · · focus · HN ↗
rsoto2 · · focus · HN ↗
They also openly tell you what they are afraid of btw: collective worker power. something that is massively lacking in our industry, although i feel like it would be one of the easiest industries to unionize in terms of # of workers.
Interesting interview I just watched about how powerful and dangerous these "wishes" or "prophecies" are especially in the hands of the ultra-wealthy: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR7grHa1NR0" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eR7grHa1NR0
rfgplk · · focus · HN ↗
Effectively yes, in the current forms. Those professions will likely evolve, but the traditional forms (ie writing code by hand, writing law filings by hand etc) are all dead.
superxpro12 · · focus · HN ↗
spongebobstoes · · focus · HN ↗
this is more likely to democratize the legal system by reducing the cost of a good legal team
raphman · · focus · HN ↗
It seems much more probable to me that these LLMs will make good things worse than that they will make bad things better.
margorczynski · · focus · HN ↗
spongebobstoes · · focus · HN ↗
andriy_koval · · focus · HN ↗
there will still be writing initial and incremental prompts by hands, until and if LLMs surpass humans in all intellectual functions.
freejazz · · focus · HN ↗
rsecora · · focus · HN ↗
porkshoe · · focus · HN ↗
As it stands, it seems far more likely to result in a wonderful life for a few, and an absolute catastrophe for most.
rsecora · · focus · HN ↗
siva7 · · focus · HN ↗
spiderice · · focus · HN ↗
Same argument for plumbers. Everyone always jokes about what a good time it is to be a plumber. But what happens when all the software engineers turn to plumbing? Suddenly it's not such a good time to be a plumber anymore.
Thrymr · · focus · HN ↗
spiderice · · focus · HN ↗
bawana · · focus · HN ↗