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Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters

129 points · 106 comments · ddp26

  1. glimshe · · focus · HN ↗
    Product idea: a LLM trained separately from mainline LLMs that anticipate market trends by analyzing how mainline LLMs will invest. As retail investors will probably use mainline AI for decisions going forward , one could get an edge.

    "The AI-driven Market Hypothesis"

    Please let me know where I should pick up my Nobel prize.

    1. graypegg · · focus · HN ↗
      Then the next person needs an LLM trained to predict the LLM trained to predict the mainline LLM.

      It's derivatives all the way down

      1. in_absentia · · focus · HN ↗
        "No one could have anticipated the market crash of 2028."
        1. pydry · · focus · HN ↗
          "You're absolutely right!"
          1. MonkeyIsNull · · focus · HN ↗
            "It was load-bearing"
            1. ares623 · · focus · HN ↗
              I can't bear all this load anymore
              1. inglor_cz · · focus · HN ↗
                You were obviously within the blast radius.
                1. graypegg · · focus · HN ↗
                  I smoked every gun, bore every load, I even signposted an honest assesment of your yakshaving... and yet, you push back?
                  1. inglor_cz · · focus · HN ↗
                    This was so good that I turned it into a Substack Note, with full credit.

                    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;substack.com&#x2F;profile&#x2F;30212008-marian-kechlibar&#x2F;note&#x2F;c-339930360" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;substack.com&#x2F;profile&#x2F;30212008-marian-kechlibar&#x2F;note&#x2F;...

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