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Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters

129 points · 106 comments · ddp26

  1. glimshe · · focus · HN ↗
    Product idea: a LLM trained separately from mainline LLMs that anticipate market trends by analyzing how mainline LLMs will invest. As retail investors will probably use mainline AI for decisions going forward , one could get an edge.

    "The AI-driven Market Hypothesis"

    Please let me know where I should pick up my Nobel prize.

    1. GLGirty · · focus · HN ↗
      There are surely prize-worthy discoveries to be made about the long term behaviour of any system that can introspect previous discoveries and adjust it's behaviour.

      I suspect that economics and psychology are both examples of these systems, and that, long term, these system will alter behaviour to thwart previous observations.

      Economics requires observers to hoard discoveries and insights, so they can enrich themselves while the insights hold.

      1. superxpro12 · · focus · HN ↗
        at what point do we call this a game instead of economics? whats the benefit to society if the markets are just AI bots trying to out-maneuver one another?
        1. engineer_22 · · focus · HN ↗
          I think it's widely recognized to be a game. Humans love games so it's OK
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