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Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters

129 points · 106 comments · ddp26

  1. seanhunter · · focus · HN ↗
    This has to be the least surprising development to date given ml is a universal function estimator
    1. kyboren · · focus · HN ↗
      This is probably the most important concept for "normies" to understand about AI, IMO. It's the stochastic brother of the deterministic Church-Turing thesis. Any function that can be computed can be computed on any computer. And that function can be approximated to an arbitrary degree of precision with a DNN.

      The real kicker is DNNs are much easier to program than CPUs because they don't require a closed-form description ("a program") of the function to be approximated; you just throw a bunch of input/output pairs at the model, compute loss, backprop and update weights, repeat.

      Hence the unslakeable thirst for input/output pairs, i.e. data.

      > In the field of machine learning, the universal approximation theorems (UATs) state that

      > neural networks with a certain structure can, in principle, approximate any continuous

      > function to any desired degree of accuracy. These theorems provide a mathematical

      > justification for using neural networks, assuring researchers that a sufficiently large or

      > deep network can model the complex, non-linear relationships often found in real-world data.[1][2]

      >

      > The best-known version of the theorem applies to feedforward networks with a single hidden

      > layer. It states that if the layer's activation function is non-polynomial (which is true

      > for common choices like the sigmoid function or ReLU), then the network can act as a

      > "universal approximator." Universality is achieved by increasing the number of neurons in

      > the hidden layer, making the network "wider." Other versions of the theorem show that

      > universality can also be achieved by keeping the network's width fixed but increasing its

      > number of layers, making it "deeper."

      <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Universal_approximation_theorem" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&#x2F;wiki&#x2F;Universal_approximation_theore...

      1. dTal · · focus · HN ↗
        &gt;This is probably the most important concept for &quot;normies&quot; to understand about AI, IMO. It&#x27;s the stochastic brother of the deterministic Church-Turing thesis.

        Your local normies appear to be oddly well versed in computer science... not sure that line would go down well at my local watering hole.

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