Thread

1. bagels · 1789661782 · focus · HN ↗

   Aren't forecasters already using 'artificial intelligence' for decades in the form of non-llm machine learning models?

   1. tfehring · 1789663960 · focus · HN ↗

      For statistical time series forecasting, yes. This is for judgment-based forecasting, a somewhat different problem. It often involves, e.g. estimating the probabilities of one-off future events, which time series forecasting models aren’t suited for.

      1. bpt3 · 1789665106 · focus · HN ↗

         While time-series forecasting models aren't well suited for this, I would argue that humans aren't either.

         Obviously the best humans are better than average, but this isn't all that surprising to me?

         1. ddp26 · 1789665898 · focus · HN ↗

            Right. What's really surprising is how much better the best are. Human superforecasters, and prediction markets are surprisingly accurate too.

            We could live in a world where things are much more chaotic, and the best humans (or AIs) would only be slightly better than chance. Evidently the world we live in is pretty darn predictable.

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