Thread

1. N_Lens · 1789618282 · focus · HN ↗

   The big companies are insulated because they've locked in multi-year supply contracts with ram manufacturers - Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon (All on 3-5 yr contracts). OAI's deal with Samsung & SK Hynix is also colossal - locking up roughly 900,000 DRAM wafers per month, roughly 40% of world output (Stargate project).

   Apple got caught out because it had a shorter contract that ended in the beginning of Q3, and they've tried to source their RAM from Chinese CXMT who declined because all capacity was already locked in contracts. They've gone with a lesser known company Kioxia.

   Overall the consumer segment is completely neglected, companies don't care about end users in the current market conditions.

   1. josephg · 1789618707 · focus · HN ↗

      > OAI's deal with Samsung & SK Hynix is also colossal - locking up roughly 900,000 DRAM wafers per month, roughly 40% of world output (Stargate project).

      I wonder if they'll, at some point, have enough RAM? Or is this is the new normal? Will models keep scaling with the amount of ram chips openai and anthropic own?

      1. ohyes · 1789619653 · focus · HN ↗

         Hard to know, does each GB of ram give some marginal increase in profit or potential profit?

         I’d guess no. Past a certain point the model has all the capabilities it can possibly usefully offer and honestly we may already be past that. The next gen model just doesn’t seem like as clear a step up as it once was.

         1. Leonard_of_Q · 1789633043 · focus · HN ↗

            That point is said to lie somewhere around 640 KB if I recall correctly.

            <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;skeptics.stackexchange.com&#x2F;questions&#x2F;2863&#x2F;did-bill-gates-say-640k-ought-to-be-enough-for-everyone" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;skeptics.stackexchange.com&#x2F;questions&#x2F;2863&#x2F;did-bill-g...

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