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The Painful Truth: The RAM Crisis Is Only Just the Beginning

62 points · 69 comments · perelin

  1. N_Lens · · focus · HN ↗
    The big companies are insulated because they've locked in multi-year supply contracts with ram manufacturers - Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon (All on 3-5 yr contracts). OAI's deal with Samsung & SK Hynix is also colossal - locking up roughly 900,000 DRAM wafers per month, roughly 40% of world output (Stargate project).

    Apple got caught out because it had a shorter contract that ended in the beginning of Q3, and they've tried to source their RAM from Chinese CXMT who declined because all capacity was already locked in contracts. They've gone with a lesser known company Kioxia.

    Overall the consumer segment is completely neglected, companies don't care about end users in the current market conditions.

    1. whatever1 · · focus · HN ↗
      Apple has no excuse to be cornered when it had $300B in cash sitting. They f’ed up big time.
      1. isomorphic · · focus · HN ↗
        Well, you know what they say. The best time to blow tens of billions you might never get back on a risky memory fab in your home country is ten years ago. The second best time is today!
        1. whatever1 · · focus · HN ↗
          Will they ever not need memory for their products?

          Why have pants down exposure to the market prices? Specially when they have 300B in the bank and a fab costs what 20-30B?

          They are lucky they did not get squeezed out of tsmc too, otherwise they would have to re release the iPhone X in 2027.

        2. lelanthran · · focus · HN ↗
          > a risky memory fab in your home country is ten years ago.

          What makes it risky? Do you think that Apple will pivot into something that doesn't require RAM? Maybe like an IBM, they pivot to services?

          1. timw4mail · · focus · HN ↗
            Ram is boom or bust industry. The big manufacturers remain because they were either wise in their bets or lucky.
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