Australia says it could follow Canada in forging deeper ties with EU
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Australia says it could follow Canada in forging deeper ties with EU
Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.
jmyeet · · focus · HN ↗
As for Canada, nobody really knows what associate membership means. Given that EU freedoms are reciprocal I just don't see this going anywhere. Plus there's been a free trade deal with the EU on the table for a decade that hasn't been ratified.
As for redefining the world order, that's what this war of choice in Iran will amount to. In the short-to-medium term it's going to redefine the Gulf security architecture. The refusal to restrain Israel probably means Russia will swallow the eastern chunk of Ukraine they occupy.
And of course the big winner in all of this is China who have had to do absolutely nothing.
Empires don't die overnight and they die violently. This is going to be bad but I honestly see no way the US can restore its position as the global hegemon. It's influence has peaked. And I don't believe anything will reverse that.
So I don't know what this means for Australia. It has operated essentially as an American colonial outpost since the Cold War. The geography was once much more important to cover the sky for receiving satellite communications.
Selling raw resources is ultimately untenable for an economy (IMHO) but Australia has gone down the path of turning the entire economy into a massive Ponzi scheme of housing, like almost every other developed nation. When housing is the only logical investment, it dominates capital and lending and productive output falls off a cliff, which is exactly what happened.
bawolff · · focus · HN ↗
> As for redefining the world order, that's what this war of choice in Iran will amount to. In the short-to-medium term it's going to redefine the Gulf security architecture. The refusal to restrain Israel probably means Russia will swallow the eastern chunk of Ukraine they occupy.
I couldn't disagree more. The cornerstone of American foreign policy in the middle east has been based around Israel for decades now. Despite how much they all hate each other, if the gulf monarchies see USA withdrawing from Israel, they are likely to worry they might be next.
That's not to say i think USA is being smart about the war - they clearly went in half-cocked without a plan or objectives. However totally ignoring the situation would have likely drawn the region into China's hands too.
I'm not sure how you are connecting the war in iran to the middle east. Increased oil prices? The link seems tenous.
jmyeet · · focus · HN ↗
Australia can sell raw materials anywhere but the Red Sea being closed makes it take longer and be more expensive and who is really going to demand raw materials in Europe when the energy crunch hits? And we're bouldering towards that energy crunch (both natural gas and diesel). One of Australia's biggest competitive advantages in selling raw materials to China has always been relative proximity. Lower shipping times and costs.
Yes, the US has used Israel as a weapon in the Middle East (since ~1967) but what kept Gulf powers in line was the supply of weapons (to prop up unpopular regimes) and the free flow of trade. This war has shown that the US cannot defend its own bases in the Gulf let alone any of its client states (sorry, "allies").
I believe there's a nonzero chance the Israeli state collapses within the next decade. That's how much things are shifting and what a blunder this has been.
The GCC countries are going to have the redefine a new regional security architecture that includes Iran. That's inevitable at this point. If the US had been smart they simply would've admitted defeat ~5 months ago but they can't. Because of Israel. For now.
So Iran is America's Afghanistan (USSR era). The quagmire of Afghanistan was a huge factor in the collapse and breakup of the USSR. This isn't like Vietnam, which we could simply walk away from. Iran won and the Israeli state in its current form is doomed.
bawolff · · focus · HN ↗
Its going to be painful no doubt, but you can do lots of painful things when you don't have a choice. I think its ultimately up to the US if they force the issue.
> I believe there's a nonzero chance the Israeli state collapses within the next decade. That's how much things are shifting and what a blunder this has been.
Its the middle east, so anything is possible, but i think that is unlikely. Its on friendlier terms now with the gulf monarchies than at any other point in its history. Its big external threats (hezbollah, hamas, iran) took their swing - they did draw blood but they aren't really in a position to do it again. Its not all roses. Israel burned through massive amounts of soft power and is suffering a brain drain due to war, but their geopolitical position seems pretty good on the whole.
That is not to mention long term dynamics with increasing renewable deployments. What does oil market look like in 10-20 years? That alone could potentially reshape the middle east.
I suspect if Israel collapses it will be due to internal conflict. It seems like their political culture is becoming more and more factionalized.
> The GCC countries are going to have the redefine a new regional security architecture that includes Iran. That's inevitable at this point. If the US had been smart they simply would've admitted defeat ~5 months ago but they can't. Because of Israel. For now.
I dont think we are at the point where that is inevitable. Obviously this isn't going amazing for USA, but still at the end of the day, USA can keep this up for a long time. Its not clear that Iran can.
>So Iran is America's Afghanistan (USSR era)
Hardly. USA is not spending anywhere near as much money and lives as USSR was in Afghanistan. The biggest impact of this conflict is price at the pump and its not even that high. Without that, would the american public even notice?