Thread

Australia says it could follow Canada in forging deeper ties with EU

254 points · 216 comments · doener

FlowingRiver · 1789601109 · focus · HN ↗
It is an interesting position we are in here, I suspect we will do the usual thing and walk the middle road. Australia, is part of the Commonwealth, huge trade partner with Asia and allies with the US. Why not throw Canada into the mix some more.
This setup is why I call this place an equal opportunist whore. If we can do business with you, we will. I also call it the worlds largest Mining town, but that just acknowledging the reality of the place a little.
As much as many are going against the US, I don't think there is much constitution at the top here to make such a bold move. We will just be pottering around down here hoping all the bad stuff passes us by as nobody notices us.
1. XorNot · 1789602149 · focus · HN ↗
  Which is exactly the sensible plan.
  I want a government which does the cost effective thing, not one which tries to make statements with bold headlines.
  I want boring government policy which sensibly hedges against future risk in correct appreciation of our unbelievably fortunate geopolitical luck.
2. bGl2YW5j · 1789602871 · focus · HN ↗
  I'm Australian and am increasingly ok with this approach. I'm growing slowly out of a protectionist mindset, toward one of cautious, and considered collaboration. Singapore follows this approach and it has worked well for them so far.
  1. xdennis · 1789603658 · focus · HN ↗
    Singapore is a city, Australia is a continent. Singapore is a poor analog for pretty much every other country. It was founded precisely because it sits near a busy sea route. It makes sense for Singapore to be very open to trade. That does not mean it works for Australia.
    (I'm not arguing that the reverse is true, just that Singapore proves nothing.)
    senectus1 · 1789603796 · focus · HN ↗
    its not just a city
    its an island and a country on it's own.
    but its posistioning is relevent yes.
    bGl2YW5j · 1789606743 · focus · HN ↗
    What do you reckon would work well for Aus?
  2. BLKNSLVR · 1789609162 · focus · HN ↗
    I've never really understood the protectionist mindset. It kinda only makes sense to me as a fading shadow of WWII paranoia. The invasion of Australia by a foreign adversary has never been something I've worried about (but, maybe, that's _because_ of the alignment with the US). I've also struggled with the practical logistics of it.
    marcus_holmes · 1789616218 · focus · HN ↗
    100%. The only conceivable threat of invasion would be China, and they can just buy Australian resources [0] for far cheaper than it would cost them to invade us.
    I don't understand who the cookers think we're defending against.
    [0] <a href="https://shunculture.com/article/what-australian-companies-are-chinese-owned" rel="nofollow">https://shunculture.com/article/what-australian-companies-ar... it's about 2% in 2025
    FlowingRiver · 1789621915 · focus · HN ↗
    It is said that if you are resource rich it is best to sell your resources to others than to hoard them even if you sell them basically at cost.
    It is better to have an economic alliance than a potential enemy.
3. akudha · 1789604028 · focus · HN ↗
  India does the same. They try to be friendly (or at least on business terms) with as many countries as they can and stay out of global conflicts as much as possible. They were buying oil from Russia well after the Russia-Ukraine war started. It also worked well for India as they were able to get rock bottom prices.
  From a purely economic standpoint, this would make sense. Not sure what to feel about the ethics of it though - at least part of the Russian war bill was footed by the money India paid for Russian oil. One can argue the Ukraine's problems are not India's problems. One could also argue it would be nice to not fund shitty wars, even a little, even indirectly.
  Geopolitics is a complex subject I suppose, for a layman like me.
  1. triceratops · 1789605385 · focus · HN ↗
    > at least part of the Russian war bill was footed by the money India paid for Russian oil
    It's weird India gets held to this standard. Don't European countries still buy some natural gas from Russia?
    carefree-bob · 1789608863 · focus · HN ↗
    Russian natgas is laundered through third parties, whereas India is laundering Russian oil. Not saying I support any of these sanctions or tariffs, but India is making bank selling Russian oil to Europe right now, so there is going to be some political blowback. Malaysia also.
    triceratops · 1789654195 · focus · HN ↗
    > India is making bank selling Russian oil to Europe
    So...Europe is buying Russian oil and gas? Bit counterproductive, no?
  2. gg82 · 1789606025 · focus · HN ↗
    Russian crude made up 35-40% of India's oil imports in 2024. I'm sure it is not much different at present. Although a bill just passed through congress that will allow Trump to put up to a 100% Tariff on Indian imports.
    lern_too_spel · 1789608683 · focus · HN ↗
    With the strait of Hormuz closed, Russia now accounts for more than 50% of India's oil imports. If the tariffs work, the strategic petroleum reserves of the rich countries will deplete even faster, and when the reserves are gone, those rich countries will pay more for non-Russian oil than India can, so India is going to eventually have to buy the Russian oil and take the tariff hit.
    wlalchia · 1789616920 · focus · HN ↗
    It's 2026 now, and their oil production has dropped 28% due in the last month, they stopped exports (at least temporarily) and were buying oil from Turkiye and Kazakhstan, military police are stationed at fuel stations and people are fleeing crimea due to no fuel and other conditions.
    <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4zI_oNsdgg" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4zI_oNsdgg
  3. throwup238 · 1789608557 · focus · HN ↗
    > Geopolitics is a complex subject I suppose, for a layman like me.
    It helps to be familiar with realism in international relations theory starting with Machiavelli and Hobbes, and postwar realism which developed over the Cold War. The ethics have been debated for centuries and the mainstream interpretation is that leaders have a fiduciary obligation to the population they are responsible for, which fundamentally changes ethical considerations.
    It’s a completely different moral question when you’re responsible for a billion people, many of whom may suffer or die due to the cost of fuel. It is in principle a violation against their own people for Indian leaders to prioritize Ukraine’s people over their own.
4. BLKNSLVR · 1789608411 · focus · HN ↗
  But there's also no fundamental need for a bold move either. Country relationships are almost entirely based on trade. It's 'nice' when there are ideology and policy overlaps, but they would get overlooked if there were serious trade disputes (although it's less likely to happen as it's easier to form trade agreements with the like-minded).
  The relationship with the US is deteriorating entirely due to trade. The Iran war is an example of this because it completely fucks international and internal logistics. I don't think Australia, politically, cares if the US bomb Iran or even commit war crimes there, but the fact it affects trade (via oil prices and all the ripple effects of that) is the reason for at least preparation of an 'exit relationship' stance (and, of course, the other trade circus sideshows Trump is putting on, vis a vis tariffs).
  I'm not sure Australia does much trade with Russia, hence Australia can support Ukraine until the cows come home, without risking trade margins.
5. fyredge · 1789618183 · focus · HN ↗
  You'd be surprised at how many equal opportunist whores there are on earth. These are the countries that I believe Mark Carney referred to when he said "middle powers".
  It is simply the most rational choice for countries who wish to thrive to play all sides, taking none and survive the disruptions.
  1. FlowingRiver · 1789621968 · focus · HN ↗
    Carney saying 'middle powers' really is the most polite way of saying this.

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