Thread

1. bwb · 1789586180 · focus · HN ↗

   Get ready for a fun ride my friends :)

   Fun ride =

   Oil is going up, possibly for a long time, which will have a big inflationary effect on everything. And it appears the USA government has lost the conflict it started and effectively given control over key oil delivery channels to Iran. Not to mention Saudia facing real issues from rebel groups / Yemen (simplification).

   Government debt is high in several key economies, and the bond market is being saturated with AI-related bonds, as well as possibly people finally tired of lending the USA/France/UK money at low rates and demanding higher ones. And with higher interest rates and bonds rolling over it means more and more money going to pay for the debt, rather than core services.

   Wild cards lurking in the bushes... AI, AGI, RSI.

   And yonder you have a nuclear power floundering; its only source of hard currency is being rightfully degraded, and its leadership delusional.

   And the one to watch IMO... Russian wheat export ability: wheat prices are up considerably, and combined with inflation from oil, this is the kind of stuff that creates waves of political change like the Arab Spring.

   1. leptons · 1789586770 · focus · HN ↗

      This comment isn't helpful. Please explain for those of us without a degree in economics.

      1. kadoban · 1789587248 · focus · HN ↗

         Inflation is high, so interest rates need to go up to try to slow that, but the economy isn't doing amazing already, and higher interest rates won't help that.

         Not to mention the US debt is _high_ as hell and bond yields mean that's more expensive.

         And the country is run by a broken fool who has no interest or ability to fix any of that.

         1. ThunderSizzle · 1789589472 · focus · HN ↗

            The country has been _run_ by fools for 26 years. Congress has had 26 years to do something about the fiscal situation, and we've had four presidents, and the fiscal responsible side of the electorate is never listened to.

            Both sides are to blame - neither will fix the problem. Obama could've made that his goal - he was competent, had a lot of political good will, and many people were frustrated at the bailout policy Bush did, but instead it was inflationary printing (quantitative easing), Obamacare and Cash 4 Clunkers (which the used car market still hasn't recovered from).

            I never voted for him - I didn't view him as honest, nor did he seem to indicate that he liked America, but was rather just a good talker - but I think he could've been a great president given a less radicalizing agenda.

            He was probably the best situated president in terms of timing to fix the debt problem, but instead it was a good time for divisive politics. By the time Obama finished, it became clear neither party actually cared about the fiscally conservative Ron Paul supporting voting block.

            1. khriss · 1789633196 · focus · HN ↗

               > The country has been _run_ by fools for 26 years.

               It's hard to accept the 'everyone is the same' in light of Trump's antics. Remind me again which presidents started wars of choice at the behest of Israel even when they were explicitly warned of the consequences?

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