Thread

1. bwb · 1789586180 · focus · HN ↗

   Get ready for a fun ride my friends :)

   Fun ride =

   Oil is going up, possibly for a long time, which will have a big inflationary effect on everything. And it appears the USA government has lost the conflict it started and effectively given control over key oil delivery channels to Iran. Not to mention Saudia facing real issues from rebel groups / Yemen (simplification).

   Government debt is high in several key economies, and the bond market is being saturated with AI-related bonds, as well as possibly people finally tired of lending the USA/France/UK money at low rates and demanding higher ones. And with higher interest rates and bonds rolling over it means more and more money going to pay for the debt, rather than core services.

   Wild cards lurking in the bushes... AI, AGI, RSI.

   And yonder you have a nuclear power floundering; its only source of hard currency is being rightfully degraded, and its leadership delusional.

   And the one to watch IMO... Russian wheat export ability: wheat prices are up considerably, and combined with inflation from oil, this is the kind of stuff that creates waves of political change like the Arab Spring.

   1. darth_avocado · 1789588361 · focus · HN ↗

      This is the right move. Inflationary pressures due to high oil prices and tariffs are not going away anytime soon. All the economic numbers point to a need for a rate hike. Not doing so has a much larger effect on the financial system than a 25 bps rate hike. Stagflation is a bigger risk to the economy.

      Counterintuitively the rate hike can help lower things like mortgage rates by stabilizing the bond yields.

      1. bwb · 1789588966 · focus · HN ↗

         Definitely the right move, 100% agree.

         I don't think that mortgage rates are going to go down; I think they will go up. Just my opinion.

         I also think oil is about to go up even more, maybe for multiple years, which is going to be inflationary on everything we do. But, could be really good for solar growth, electrification, and electric cars.

         1. darth_avocado · 1789589255 · focus · HN ↗

            Re: mortgage rates

            <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.washingtonpost.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;16&#x2F;heres-what-fed-rate-hike-means-your-mortgage-car-loan-credit-cards&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.washingtonpost.com&#x2F;business&#x2F;2026&#x2F;09&#x2F;16&#x2F;heres-wha...

            1. bwb · 1789589872 · focus · HN ↗

               Remind me in 6 months :)

               I&#x27;ll be you; they are higher this time.

               1. darth_avocado · 1789592148 · focus · HN ↗

                  That wouldn’t be a great way to measure it. I’m only talking about the fed rates, how it impacts the bond market and therefore the mortgage rates. If someone decides to nuke the oil infrastructure of the world tomorrow, this rate hike doesn’t matter and your hopes and dreams of a low mortgage rate get nuked along with the oil infrastructure.

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.