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How much oil-market buffer is left?

116 points · 180 comments · mcone

  1. anovikov · · focus · HN ↗
    But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

    Yes US produces mostly light crude and production of refined products requires also inputs of heavy one, but it's not produced in the Middle East anyway, so current situation can't impact that, either.

    1. ncallaway · · focus · HN ↗
      > But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

      It's a global commodity. The reason there likely won't be a shortage in the U.S. has little to do with our production volumes, and has more to do with the fact that we're rich enough to be able to afford the higher prices when many other countries will have to forgeo using oil.

      But if we weren't a rich country and we couldn't afford to pay a higher price for oil than many other nations on earth, we would produce and export oil to people that can pay more.

      Ireland during the famine produced enough food to feed every person. But much of it was exported to other places, that could afford to pay a higher dollar amount to survive.

      1. citrin_ru · · focus · HN ↗
        It’s a global commodity unless there are export restrictions. Russia maintains petrol/diesel prices way below world level thanks to export ban among other things. China did impose temporary export restrictions too. I would not be surprised if Trump will eventually impose export restrictions on refined products to maintain low domestic prices.
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