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How much oil-market buffer is left?

116 points · 180 comments · mcone

  1. anovikov · · focus · HN ↗
    But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

    Yes US produces mostly light crude and production of refined products requires also inputs of heavy one, but it's not produced in the Middle East anyway, so current situation can't impact that, either.

    1. ncallaway · · focus · HN ↗
      > But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

      It's a global commodity. The reason there likely won't be a shortage in the U.S. has little to do with our production volumes, and has more to do with the fact that we're rich enough to be able to afford the higher prices when many other countries will have to forgeo using oil.

      But if we weren't a rich country and we couldn't afford to pay a higher price for oil than many other nations on earth, we would produce and export oil to people that can pay more.

      Ireland during the famine produced enough food to feed every person. But much of it was exported to other places, that could afford to pay a higher dollar amount to survive.

      1. oblio · · focus · HN ↗
        You're 90% of the way there.

        The US is also sovereign and if things would become really bad the government would just ban exports.

        Ireland wasn't sovereign and it turns out, as much as other countries act brotherly (not that the UK really did), nobody really cares about you like you care.

        1. WarmWash · · focus · HN ↗
          Banning exports would be legitimately catastrophic geopolitically.

          Tariffs are mostly just politics and pretty heavily partisan. Banning oil exports would be objectively evil.

          1. AgentOrange1234 · · focus · HN ↗
            I think banning oil exports would never happen since oil shareholders would scream, but why would it be evil?
            1. orwin · · focus · HN ↗
              Some countries rely on oil imports to produce agricultural products, and suddenly cutting them off the global market would kill hundreds of millions from hunger over the next year. Look at what happened in Cuba. Without china giving them old solar panels and used batteries, they would have revolted already. They still have a huge food insecurity issue for next year, especially if the huricane season gets bad.
            2. WarmWash · · focus · HN ↗
              Because the US started this mess, and it would essentially shift all the cost onto other countries who had no part in it.
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