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How much oil-market buffer is left?

116 points · 180 comments · mcone

  1. bix6 · · focus · HN ↗
    Can anyone speak to the long term impacts of this? Like is gas going to remain high for years (or even worse get rationed) and I should trade in for an EV now?
    1. karmakurtisaani · · focus · HN ↗
      Get the EV. They're better anyway.
      1. bix6 · · focus · HN ↗
        Yes they’re better. But it’s very expensive to get the EV I want that would replace my current cars capabilities.
        1. Rohansi · · focus · HN ↗
          I'm curious what specific capabilities you're referring to here.
          1. bix6 · · focus · HN ↗
            I have an outback with AT tires and I can fit my surfboards inside. I don’t want a compact. Rivian R2 is tempting but esspensive.
            1. dalyons · · focus · HN ↗
              The r2 is right on the median price for new cars in the US, believe it or not. Crazy. But yeah, an Outback is still cheaper
            2. standeven · · focus · HN ↗
              Used Tesla Model Y with AT tires? You can get a small lift kit for them if you want more ground clearance.
              1. bix6 · · focus · HN ↗
                Fuck Elon.
            3. medler · · focus · HN ↗
              Subaru dealers near me have the Trailseeker, an EV comparable to the Outback, listed around $35k
              1. bix6 · · focus · HN ↗
                Ooo nice I wrote Subie off after the Solerra flop but I’ll take a look
                1. medler · · focus · HN ↗
                  The Solterra got a lot better in the 2026 model year. It’s not a bottom-tier EV anymore. (Disclosure: I have one)
            4. iammiles · · focus · HN ↗
              I replaced my old Forester with the new Trailseeker. Stsrting price (and interest rate) is much better than the R2.

              I can slide in an 8’ board no problem when I’m too lazy to use the roof rack.

              I haven’t upgraded the wheels or tires yet but the stock ones have had no problem going up and down the old logging and forest service roads of NW Oregon and SW Washington.

              1. bix6 · · focus · HN ↗
                Thank you for the rec I’ll take a look!
            5. WarmWash · · focus · HN ↗
              Lightnings are awesome trucks
            6. NegativeLatency · · focus · HN ↗
              If the Toyota sienna had a plugin ev option that would be really compelling for me. The electric van market is surprisingly sad. I currently only boogie board because it fits in my car.
              1. mysterydip · · focus · HN ↗
                I’m really tempted by current sienna hybrids, my current gas one gets 20mpg on a good day. Plug-in for the daily school commutes and after school activities would be great
        2. Aspos · · focus · HN ↗
          Polestar was kicked out from the US market and is now practically giving away their vehicles. Look at their lease deals.
      2. [deleted] · · focus · HN ↗

        [deleted]

      3. foobiekr · · focus · HN ↗
        PHEV are more convenient and generally better. A Toyota Rav4 PHEV, Prius or may others, are shockingly fuel efficient relagtive to older car stock. I had not replaced a car for 16 years and found getting actual 52-54mpg out of a much larger and heavier vehicle genuinely shocking.

        Most people have a relatively short commute where the modest range of PHEV still allows them to mostly be on electric.

        1. hedora · · focus · HN ↗
          I can’t imagine buying a car that needs to go to the gas station to refill at this point, now that we have ev’s.

          This total cost of ownership calculator can be helpful:

          <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;afdc.energy.gov&#x2F;calc&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;afdc.energy.gov&#x2F;calc&#x2F;

          Compared to a bmw i3, it’s price and (anecdotal) reliability are kind of comparable, but the annual cost is &gt;2x more, and the carbon footprint is &gt;4x.

          (I had to pick a slightly older i3 to compare, since it’s discontinued).

          As you point out, the rav4 is bigger. A lightning truck is bigger than the rav4 hybrid, but with lower purchase cost (2023, base for both). The lightning has higher per year costs though.

          It’s pretty clearly game over for ICE&#x2F;hybrids. Tariffs and bribed politicians can’t change the underlying price and performance advantage.

          1. trescenzi · · focus · HN ↗
            In Connecticut it is only now cheaper to use electric instead of gas in my prius prime. I get 50-53 mpg highway, even over very long distances I drive to family in STL a few times a years, and electric is $0.33&#x2F;kWh. So even at around 4 miles&#x2F;kWh I&#x27;m paying $0.0825&#x2F;mile for electric which breaks even right around $4.25&#x2F;gallon. So it&#x27;s really going to depend upon where you live.

            That&#x27;s not to say I wouldn&#x27;t buy an electric car tomorrow if I had the option. My somewhat frequent long drives make gas slightly preferable but these days I&#x27;d much prefer electric.

          2. unethical_ban · · focus · HN ↗
            For someone who drives long distances or travels in the Western US, I think hybrids make more sense than EV. I know in Texas I could get an EV but it would extend trips quite a bit and make planning more important in when and where to charge the vehicle.

            I can&#x27;t see myself buying a new pure-ICE vehicle again right now. The mechanical advantages of the e-CVT are too nifty, the mileage benefits too great, for me to think of spending $40k on a car just to have more &quot;fun horsepower&quot;.

            Mazda&#x2F;Toyota hybrids and the Ford Maverick are on my shortlist if the time comes for me to replace my paid-off car.

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