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How much oil-market buffer is left?

116 points · 180 comments · mcone

  1. anovikov · · focus · HN ↗
    But for the US, there's no question like that. It produces a lot lot more than it consumes anyway. There can't be a shortage.

    Yes US produces mostly light crude and production of refined products requires also inputs of heavy one, but it's not produced in the Middle East anyway, so current situation can't impact that, either.

    1. soperj · · focus · HN ↗
      Why would any producer in the US sell it locally if they could get more by shipping it?
      1. Aspos · · focus · HN ↗
        The real question then is how quickly export ban can be implemented?
        1. 361994752 · · focus · HN ↗
          Since oil companies will make good money from the price hike and exports, I guess they’ll lobby against an export ban?
        2. daedrdev · · focus · HN ↗
          Oil is not a single good. Different types of crude produce different products at various grades hence why diesel is so expensive in the US compared to something like natural gas
        3. larkost · · focus · HN ↗
          Why do you think Republicans would institute an export ban? Trump has been touting every export deal he can (especially promises to purchase petroleum), he has even been measuring import/export levels as if foreign countries are cheating the U.S. if they export more to the U.S. than they import from it.

          I am not confident that the Democrats would even implement such a ban, as they get pretty big campaign donations from the oil industry as well.

          1. XorNot · · focus · HN ↗
            It also wouldn't work. The US has refineries which can only run on various foreign import grades of oil.

            The US produces oil which goes to foreign refineries for the same reason.

            The effect of "banning exports" is non obvious.

            Conversely not starting a war with Iran had some really obvious benefits that every previous administration recognized.

        4. soperj · · focus · HN ↗
          About as quickly as the Canadian Oil patch would be flooded with money. All that would do is push oil investments out of the country, and your surplus would become a deficit in the drop of a hat.
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