I wonder when/if we’ll see Gemini beating Fable and Astra. Last year I would have confidently bet Google will overtake the others just because they have the data, the hardware (TPUs) and a fat advertising money pipe and yet they are still behind. Anyone anonymous at Google want to hint when Gemini 4 will be out?
I’m wondering if they even see a coding agent as a valuable prize. It’s a competitive market in a race to the bottom economically, hard to establish consistent differentiation and virtually zero switching cost for customers.
I think they’ve made a shrewd move in focusing on search integration and everyday users (Gemini app) vs software power users. They have their corner and nobody is really competing with them, plus it feeds directly into their existing revenue stream.
Google is not being dumb or making some 4D strategic move by not going after coding capabilities.
Occam's Razor is overwhelmingly that they just don't have the organisational capability to capture this market. If they did then they absolutely would have.
Occam’s Razor could also simply be that OpenAI and Anthropic are massively overvalued.
If OpenAI or Anthropic go away tomorrow, people find a new model and move on. If Google goes away tomorrow, people’s lives would be severely disrupted, and in the case of Gmail / Drive / auth access, even temporarily collapse.
Oh, for sure. I think this is definitely failure to execute and not a strategic choice. Their "acquisition" of Windsurf was a clear desire to be in this market.
rdtsc · · focus · HN ↗
plaidfuji · · focus · HN ↗
I think they’ve made a shrewd move in focusing on search integration and everyday users (Gemini app) vs software power users. They have their corner and nobody is really competing with them, plus it feeds directly into their existing revenue stream.
Eridrus · · focus · HN ↗
Maybe everybody is wrong about how valuable these companies will be, but atm it looks very dumb to not be competitive in coding.
dansquizsoft · · focus · HN ↗
Occam's Razor is overwhelmingly that they just don't have the organisational capability to capture this market. If they did then they absolutely would have.
plaidfuji · · focus · HN ↗
If OpenAI or Anthropic go away tomorrow, people find a new model and move on. If Google goes away tomorrow, people’s lives would be severely disrupted, and in the case of Gmail / Drive / auth access, even temporarily collapse.
dansquizsoft · · focus · HN ↗
Eridrus · · focus · HN ↗