Thread

1. lacker · 1789688599 · focus · HN ↗

   I have seen two worries recently:

   1. People will publish so much frontier mathematics, humans won't be able to understand it all

   2. Frontier mathematics will all be kept secret

   Fortunately, these seem like they can't both happen at once.

   1. aerodexis · 1789700205 · focus · HN ↗

      You don't think frontier mathematics is already secret?

      1. 0xWTF · 1789703241 · focus · HN ↗

         How to admit you're in finance without admitting you're in finance?

         1. computerfriend · 1789712317 · focus · HN ↗

            Or signals intelligence.
         2. leonidasrup · 1789713731 · focus · HN ↗

            Or Cryptanalysis.

            " The National Security Agency is the largest employer of mathematicians in the U.S. "

            <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.scientificamerican.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;mathematicians-and-computer-scientists-shrug-over-the-nsa-hacking&#x2F;" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;www.scientificamerican.com&#x2F;article&#x2F;mathematicians-an...

         3. short_sells_poo · 1789730724 · focus · HN ↗

            99.99% of finance is freshman level math if at that. Then 99.99% of the remaining 0.01% is somewhat more complicated but still not frontier level.

            There are very-very few cases where you need truly advanced math in finance. The problems that need solving are generally vastly more pedestrian.

            You need to deal with terrible data quality, terrible formats, noise in every aspect of your work, disruptions, lack of standards, inability to generate new data (and repeat experiments), conflicting and often opaque incentives, technical problems ranging from shitty APIs to having to squeeze nanoseconds out of your network stack, etc.

            These are all difficult problems, but they are crucially not frontier math problems (by and large).

            1. fingerlocks · 1789737388 · focus · HN ↗

               The quant side of finance is stochastic calculus and chaos, that’s what they’re talking about. Mandelbrot himself published a pop-sci book about the new fractal math of the stock market
         4. 69nanoseconds · 1789731473 · focus · HN ↗

            &gt; How to admit you&#x27;re in finance without admitting you&#x27;re in finance?

            Tell me you have no clue about quant finance without telling me you have no clue about quant finance.

            You probably think it’s abstract topology and Ito calculus, when in reality it’s linear regression and PCA. If you’re lucky, maybe you’ll see a sigmoid function.

            If someone in finance is using LLMs, it’s for marketing purposes (recruiting new grads or impressing investors). Jane Street and DE Shaw are notorious for this.

            1. computerfriend · 1789736450 · focus · HN ↗

               This is mostly true, but there are exceptions (e.g. Renaissance Technologies).

               1. 69nanoseconds · 1789740780 · focus · HN ↗

                  &gt; This is mostly true, but there are exceptions (e.g. Renaissance Technologies).

                  Nope.

                  Let me guess: you listened to The Man Who Solved the Market and think RenTech uses&#x2F;used unpublished frontier mathematics to predict the market.

                  There are plenty of firms with both higher annual % returns (consistently over 15-20 years) and higher absolute $ returns than RenTech&#x2F;Medallion fund, especially post-2010. And they’re not using “frontier mathematics”.

                  A lot of alpha comes from how well you know the VP at the exchange. Not math. Not tech. But good ol’ politics.

                  Don’t like a market participant? Tell the exchange to issue violations to that participant. Get them banned for a few months.

                  Fat fingered a trade with wrong price or quantity? The exchange can and does undo a trade after the fact. All in the name of “orderly markets”. Similar to when governments use “national security” as an excuse.

                  1. computerfriend · 1789751169 · focus · HN ↗

                     &gt; RenTech uses&#x2F;used unpublished frontier mathematics to predict the market

                     No, more like, some differential geometry and gauge theory. The topics that Jim Simons worked on.

            2. aerodexis · 1789746406 · focus · HN ↗

               I wouldn&#x27;t be surprised if it&#x27;s marketing all the way down.

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