‹ BackHN Continuity

Thread

Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. joefourier · · focus · HN ↗
      &gt; current frontier models

      &gt; Gemini 2.5 Pro, O3, Claude Sonnet 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.1

      The gap in capabilities between those models which they tested, and actual current frontier ones is enormous. I would not trust that any conclusions they made are applicable.

      1. sigmoid10 · · focus · HN ↗
        The actual current frontier plays somewhere around GM level.

        <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chessbench-ai.github.io&#x2F;#leaderboard" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chessbench-ai.github.io&#x2F;#leaderboard

        It&#x27;s also worth noting that the very latest models (GPT-6 and Fable 5.1) actually play worse than their immediate predecessors, so it is likely that the labs are not benchmaxxing for this yet. If they did, I&#x27;m sure they could come up with something superior to humans. But there is probably very little demand for this compared to IT stuff.

        1. minraws · · focus · HN ↗
          I know HN readers and posters just read numbers and can&#x27;t be bothered to read, but please read the methodology before making any claims.

          &gt; About their ELO ratings from their own website:

          &gt; A field-relative rating calculated within ChessBench. It compares performance among the tested models and is not a direct equivalent of a human chess rating.

          I am around 1600 elo in over the board I can mop up Astra Fable etc even if I give them literal infinite time and all the subagents and internet access..

          Please folks at least use your AIs to read stuff before making claims.

          AI is not GM level, it&#x27;s not even 1600, I am 1600 by using memorized openings people frequently fall for with very basic intuitions.

          A GM is 2600 they can beat me in under 20 moves...

          Why do I even scroll through this website. For a moment I truly felt fooled, but then I read like a human should.

          Maybe I should stop doing that will be a happier life, don&#x27;t think just believe in the AGI.

          1. uncivilized · · focus · HN ↗
            HN is no different than Reddit, or any social media for that matter, in that commenters pretend to read articles.
            1. xdavidliu · · focus · HN ↗
              that is if it even a human commenter at all
              1. linkjuice4all · · focus · HN ↗
                State-sponsored psyop meta comments aside, the models obviously continue to get better, but there is still a lot of &#x27;guard railing&#x27; required to keep even the latest models completely on-task. The chess example is interesting because it&#x27;s clearly a well-studied and established domain so the rules, strategies, and whatever else is in the training data should make yield excellent results; but clearly there is some behavior in these systems that&#x27;s difficult to engineer out.
                1. YeGoblynQueenne · · focus · HN ↗
                  [delayed]
                  1. 27183 · · focus · HN ↗
                    But it speaks in words, therefore it must be super duper extra smart!!11 &#x2F;s

                    Sarcasm aside, I think this is an easy cognitive trap to fall into. It does sometimes feel like the LLM must have some world model because it converses somewhat coherently. Examples like this failure to understand chess, or to count the number of Rs in &quot;strawberry&quot;, seem difficult to explain if the models are intelligent. But that doesn&#x27;t stop people believing they are anyway. I think there must be something about the conversational interface that fools us easily. I wonder if people trained in interrogation techniques are also fooled?

                    1. YeGoblynQueenne · · focus · HN ↗
                      [delayed]
Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.