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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. joefourier · · focus · HN ↗
      &gt; current frontier models

      &gt; Gemini 2.5 Pro, O3, Claude Sonnet 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.1

      The gap in capabilities between those models which they tested, and actual current frontier ones is enormous. I would not trust that any conclusions they made are applicable.

      1. sobellian · · focus · HN ↗
        I tested both myself and a weak bot against Astra xhigh, <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;lichess.org&#x2F;study&#x2F;27lCQqDa" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;lichess.org&#x2F;study&#x2F;27lCQqDa. It&#x27;s still pretty bad at chess, though it takes longer to devolve into illegal moves.
        1. bhelkey · · focus · HN ↗
          It looks like it played a fully legal game of chess with one exception, it said &quot;rxd1+&quot; (Rook takes D1 with check) instead of &quot;rd1+&quot; (Rook to D1 with check) on move 29.

          I would say this did a really good job of playing chess. It moved the pieces consistently and traded pieces when required.

          This is worlds away from the frontier ~1 year ago where models would hallucinate pieces into existence.

          1. sobellian · · focus · HN ↗
            You can still see undercurrents of its old self, once I pointed out the illegal notation it hallucinated prior illegal moves. But I agree, it&#x27;s leagues apart from prior iterations. It also knew thematic moves in the opening. But whenever it needs to play concretely rather than &quot;I know so-and-so is a good move in these types of positions&quot; it crumbles.
            1. bhelkey · · focus · HN ↗
              Agreed, move selection was not great. Notably, it should not have allowed nxe7+.

              However, the pawn was defended by the queen and it took a forced queen trade to unlock the move.

              I have seen much worse blunders from human players. And, I have made much worse blunders.

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