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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. joefourier · · focus · HN ↗
      &gt; current frontier models

      &gt; Gemini 2.5 Pro, O3, Claude Sonnet 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.1

      The gap in capabilities between those models which they tested, and actual current frontier ones is enormous. I would not trust that any conclusions they made are applicable.

      1. sigmoid10 · · focus · HN ↗
        The actual current frontier plays somewhere around GM level.

        <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chessbench-ai.github.io&#x2F;#leaderboard" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;chessbench-ai.github.io&#x2F;#leaderboard

        It&#x27;s also worth noting that the very latest models (GPT-6 and Fable 5.1) actually play worse than their immediate predecessors, so it is likely that the labs are not benchmaxxing for this yet. If they did, I&#x27;m sure they could come up with something superior to humans. But there is probably very little demand for this compared to IT stuff.

        1. minraws · · focus · HN ↗
          I know HN readers and posters just read numbers and can&#x27;t be bothered to read, but please read the methodology before making any claims.

          &gt; About their ELO ratings from their own website:

          &gt; A field-relative rating calculated within ChessBench. It compares performance among the tested models and is not a direct equivalent of a human chess rating.

          I am around 1600 elo in over the board I can mop up Astra Fable etc even if I give them literal infinite time and all the subagents and internet access..

          Please folks at least use your AIs to read stuff before making claims.

          AI is not GM level, it&#x27;s not even 1600, I am 1600 by using memorized openings people frequently fall for with very basic intuitions.

          A GM is 2600 they can beat me in under 20 moves...

          Why do I even scroll through this website. For a moment I truly felt fooled, but then I read like a human should.

          Maybe I should stop doing that will be a happier life, don&#x27;t think just believe in the AGI.

          1. echelon · · focus · HN ↗
            The AI can write a chess bot program that will beat you.

            You&#x27;re thinking about this the wrong way. The system is built and delivered as it is because that&#x27;s how the providers make the most money. If they cared to have it perform well in chess games, you&#x27;d see a different shape and behavior.

            We shouldn&#x27;t ask the multibillion dollar automated software generation system to play games with us any more than we should ask a Boeing&#x27;s flight guidance system to do so.

            1. zahlman · · focus · HN ↗
              &gt; The system is built and delivered as it is because that&#x27;s how the providers make the most money. If they cared to have it perform well in chess games, you&#x27;d see a different shape and behavior.

              This argument is fundamentally incompatible with all the breathless rhetoric about &quot;AGI&quot; coming from the providers&#x27; general direction.

              1. echelon · · focus · HN ↗
                It&#x27;s really not.

                The labs frequently apply their raw models to problems that do not make economic sense for their customers but that demonstrate the power and capability of their systems. These experiments can cost millions of dollars. That&#x27;s not customer-shaped.

                They&#x27;re not going to give you access to that. It&#x27;s not a product. The government might have an interest in this, but that&#x27;s not something you&#x27;d be privileged to know about.

                And when these labs do develop &quot;AGI&quot;, they more than likely won&#x27;t be selling it to end users. They&#x27;ve pretty much already said this.

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