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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. joefourier · · focus · HN ↗
      &gt; current frontier models

      &gt; Gemini 2.5 Pro, O3, Claude Sonnet 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.1

      The gap in capabilities between those models which they tested, and actual current frontier ones is enormous. I would not trust that any conclusions they made are applicable.

      1. sobellian · · focus · HN ↗
        I tested both myself and a weak bot against Astra xhigh, <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;lichess.org&#x2F;study&#x2F;27lCQqDa" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;lichess.org&#x2F;study&#x2F;27lCQqDa. It&#x27;s still pretty bad at chess, though it takes longer to devolve into illegal moves.
        1. hackinthebochs · · focus · HN ↗
          So you weren&#x27;t giving it an updated board state after every move? If you want to compare apples to apples, it should give an updated board state for each move, or you should play blindfolded.
          1. HarHarVeryFunny · · focus · HN ↗
            An LLM has been trained to do everything it does blindfolded, &quot;only&quot; using perfect recall of everything in it&#x27;s hundreds of thousands of steps of context, and hundreds of layers of KV cache. It&#x27;s a computer - it has a massive advantage over a human.

            The fairest apples-to-apples comparison of an LLM whose training data included chess games would be a trained human such as Magnus Carlson, who can quite happily play a dozen or more simultaneous blindfold chess games.

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