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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. consensus1 · · focus · HN ↗
      This isn&#x27;t how intelligence works. The LLM may not be able to play chess directly through inference, but it can write a program to do it and execute that program. Same as how human intelligence works. We can&#x27;t fly, but we can build planes.
      1. nefarious_ends · · focus · HN ↗
        Thanks for saying this, feels like everyone has gone insane over this stuff.
        1. what · · focus · HN ↗
          Humans don’t code a $game engine to play $game, they can just play it. It seems like you are the one that has gone insane.
          1. hackinthebochs · · focus · HN ↗
            And how many years of direct play and study does it take for a human to get good at chess or any other game? Absolutely no human ever could be good at chess just by reading a few books, or even every book on chess. That&#x27;s just not how the brain works. If LLMs could do that they would truly be superintelligence.
            1. orwin · · focus · HN ↗
              A week. My brother learned and was above 1100 online within 12 hours, after a few hundred games.
              1. hackinthebochs · · focus · HN ↗
                We&#x27;re obviously using different meanings for &quot;good&quot; here. But aside from that, it took 100&#x27;s to 1000&#x27;s of reinforcement iterations for your brother to play competently. While certainly impressive, that is still an entirely different category from piecing together disparate facts learned during training (LLMs aren&#x27;t analyzing a board as they&#x27;re learning the rules or ingesting PNG files), to executing a competent performance in one shot.
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