‹ BackHN Continuity

Thread

Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. WhitneyLand · · focus · HN ↗
      1. It’s hard to trust a 2026 paper that’s showing results for such old models.

      2. Chess seems to be a poor benchmark for generalized strategic reasoning. People who are good at it rely more on experience and deep domain expertise than on skills that generalize to make them experts at unrelated tasks.

      3. The study sounds like proving humans will never fly because they don’t have wings. In reality, humans do fly, and Claude Fable would destroy any human at chess by coding a strong enough engine on the fly.

      1. manquer · · focus · HN ↗
        &gt; People who are good at it rely more on experience and deep domain expertise

        People are good are 1900 or 2100 above and the top ones who spend decades in the field i.e. deep expertise are well in the 2200-2700 range.

        A 1100 player is none of these things, they are purely relying on strategic reasoning there is a good chance they cannot name a single opening or articulate clearly why a move was appropriate. 1100 is quite low bar.

        1. svachalek · · focus · HN ↗
          1100 at online speed chess or something, could be. I&#x27;m not that deep in the chess world but everyone I know that can make 1100 in official rating can name a dozen openings and most of the known tactics, and is pretty good at applying at least one opening.
          1. tovej · · focus · HN ↗
            1100 is literally below the ELO you get by default as a beginner.
Open on Hacker News to reply ↗

Unofficial Hacker News client; not affiliated with Y Combinator.