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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. famouswaffles · · focus · HN ↗
      Frontier labs don&#x27;t care about chess. If OpenAI cared, GPT-7 could be a grandmaster+ level chess player. In fact there&#x27;s a google paper on grandmaster level chess without search with a 270M transformer. Outside that, there was gpt-3.5-turbo instruct which was incidentally a 1800 lichess elo player that didn&#x27;t make any illegal moves even after a few thousand moves. Frontier labs care deeply about automating knowledge work and computer use. They are working hard on getting models better and better, and they are succeeding. Astra is a step change on that front. So good luck i guess, if chess performance is your barometer.
      1. bigstrat2003 · · focus · HN ↗
        &gt; Frontier labs don&#x27;t care about chess. If OpenAI cared, GPT-7 could be a grandmaster+ level chess player.

        If the models were actually intelligent, the way that the boosters claim, they wouldn&#x27;t need to be tuned to play chess in order to be good at it. That&#x27;s kind of the point of intelligence, that it is generically applicable to whichever task one wishes.

        1. famouswaffles · · focus · HN ↗
          If humans were actually intelligent, they wouldn&#x27;t need to train and practice to play good chess. I mean, what level do you think people without any practice or training are ?
          1. diehunde · · focus · HN ↗
            Except all these LLMs were already trained with hundreds of chess book and game databases and they still suck
            1. famouswaffles · · focus · HN ↗
              If all you do is read chess books, you&#x27;ll be a shit player. Training and practice is what it takes to be great.
              1. diehunde · · focus · HN ↗
                Oh right. But if all you do is reading programming books you are an amazing programmer? Where is all the training and practice LLMs did to become so good at coding?
                1. hackinthebochs · · focus · HN ↗
                  &gt;Where is all the training and practice LLMs did to become so good at coding?

                  Coding is a matter of translating between the natural language description of a problem to the code specification while keeping the semantics fixed (and filling in the missing semantics reasonably well). It is not considerably more difficult than translating between two dissimilar natural languages. Chess isn&#x27;t a matter of language translation, but a compute heavy game of finding the best move out of many possibilities with wide variation in the quality of each move. Chess takes directed practice and reinforcement whereas language translation does not.

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