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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. WhitneyLand · · focus · HN ↗
      1. It’s hard to trust a 2026 paper that’s showing results for such old models.

      2. Chess seems to be a poor benchmark for generalized strategic reasoning. People who are good at it rely more on experience and deep domain expertise than on skills that generalize to make them experts at unrelated tasks.

      3. The study sounds like proving humans will never fly because they don’t have wings. In reality, humans do fly, and Claude Fable would destroy any human at chess by coding a strong enough engine on the fly.

      1. paimapi · · focus · HN ↗
        so prove it! get a public repo out there, have it play against some open source engines

        also I think the operative letter in AGI is the G - and if the G is short for &#x27;variably competent savant-like hyperfocus on certain kinds of software coding and not any other general skill&#x27; then its not really G at all, is it?

        1. BobbyJo · · focus · HN ↗
          I suck at chess. Are you saying I can&#x27;t be intelligent?
          1. nmehner · · focus · HN ↗
            If you read all chess tutorials, strategy documentation and game archives on the internet and then would still suck at chess: yes.
            1. brindleth · · focus · HN ↗
              Declarative knowledge is not the same as procedural knowledge. You can read as many chess tutorials, strategy documentation and game archives as you like, they won&#x27;t make you good at chess until you actually start practicing chess.
              1. _superposition_ · · focus · HN ↗
                Does practical improvement apply to only humans or intelligence in general?
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