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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

496 points · 653 comments · jaykru

  1. carodgers · · focus · HN ↗
    This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read.

    <a href="https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4" rel="nofollow">https:&#x2F;&#x2F;arxiv.org&#x2F;html&#x2F;2509.24239v4

    Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

    The author of the originating post says that &quot;current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks&quot;, and he&#x27;s absolutely correct.

    1. threethirtytwo · · focus · HN ↗
      The story isn&#x27;t so clear cut.

      The caveat is: It depends on the task.

      Are there reams of chess moves that the model can train off of? No.

      Are there reams of math papers the model can train off of? Yes.

      1. vmg12 · · focus · HN ↗
        &gt; The caveat is: It depends on the task.

        I think the line of criticism around LLMs sucking at chess makes more sense when you understand what the AI companies are saying about the future trajectory of these models.

        The entire recursive self improvement story falls apart once you point out that there is not much &quot;cross domain transfer learning&quot;. Meaning that training an LLM to become good at coding, math, etc, will eventually transfer into them being good at other skills that were not explicitly trained for.

        Using games like chess which have little economic value is actually a good test for this. What&#x27;s even more surprising about them sucking at chess is how much information about chess strategy exists in the training data.

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